Week 7's TV slate takes the NFL to Paris and serves up a string of competitive match-ups across seven games. All times AEDT.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints
Monday, 26 October | 12:30 am AEDT | TV: ESPN, Kayo, Disney+, NFL Game Pass | See the market
The NFL heads to Paris for the first time, with two unpredictable teams looking to establish some momentum. Pittsburgh sits 4-2 after a dramatic overtime victory, while New Orleans nearly threw away a 24-point fourth-quarter lead against the Giants.
The Steelers have a clear advantage in the turnover battle. Their defence ranks third in takeaways, while the Saints offence sits 28th in giveaways. That's a dangerous combination for New Orleans, particularly against a Pittsburgh side that knows how to turn mistakes into points.
The other major issue for the Saints is stopping the run. They're ranked 30th defensively, which should give Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle plenty of opportunities.
Pittsburgh is the more reliable side, but its inconsistency makes giving away points less attractive.
In a neutral-venue game between inconsistent teams, taking more than a field goal appeals. New Orleans has enough attacking ability to keep this close.
In a neutral-venue game between inconsistent teams, taking more than a field goal appeals. New Orleans has enough attacking ability to keep this close.
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
Monday, 26 October | 4:00 am AEDT | TV: 7mate, NFL Game Pass | See the market
San Francisco remains unbeaten at 6-0, but this could be one of its toughest assignments yet.
The 49ers are travelling across the country on a short week, with injuries beginning to test their depth. Atlanta has been inconsistent at 2-4, but the Falcons possess enough attacking talent to trouble any opponent.
Bijan Robinson remains the key. Atlanta needs to get him heavily involved after a quiet performance last week, although San Francisco's outstanding linebacker Fred Warner presents a serious obstacle.
Brock Purdy has been exceptional, while the Falcons have conceded at least 30 points in consecutive games. That's a concern against a 49ers offence capable of punishing defensive mistakes.
However, Atlanta has home-field advantage and the schedule favours the Falcons. This could be considerably closer than the records suggest.
The 49ers face a difficult travel and preparation assignment, while Atlanta has the attacking weapons to cause problems. Taking the points appeals.
The 49ers face a difficult travel and preparation assignment, while Atlanta has the attacking weapons to cause problems. Taking the points appeals.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
Monday, 26 October | 4:00 am AEDT | TV: ESPN, Kayo, Disney+, NFL Game Pass | See the market
This AFC North showdown looks one of the most evenly matched games of the round.
Baltimore sits 4-2 despite playing without Lamar Jackson for much of the past three games. Derrick Henry has helped keep the Ravens' rushing attack among the NFL's best, but Cincinnati has invested heavily in stopping the run.
The arrival of Dexter Lawrence has transformed the Bengals' defensive front, which leads the league in the percentage of rushing plays stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Cincinnati is fresh from a bye, giving its defence additional preparation time. Jackson's potential return complicates matters, but the Bengals look better equipped than most teams to challenge Baltimore's ground game.
This shapes as a tight divisional battle, with very little separating the sides.
The Bengals' improved defensive front and preparation advantage make them a narrow selection, although Jackson's availability remains crucial.
The Bengals' improved defensive front and preparation advantage make them a narrow selection, although Jackson's availability remains crucial.
Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals
Monday, 26 October | 7:05 am AEDT | TV: ESPN, Kayo, Disney+, NFL Game Pass | See the market
Denver has been winning games without playing particularly convincing football, and this is another assignment that could become uncomfortable.
The Broncos sit 4-2, largely thanks to their outstanding defence. But Bo Nix has struggled to find consistency, completing just 60.3% of his passes despite operating with one of the league's shortest average passing depths.
Arizona produced a surprise victory over the Rams last week, taking advantage of Los Angeles' mistakes and finding just enough offence to get the job done.
The Cardinals' defence remains a major concern, ranking 31st in points allowed. That should present Denver with opportunities, but the Broncos haven't shown enough attacking consistency to justify complete confidence.
Denver should win, but Arizona has demonstrated that it can frustrate stronger opponents.
Denver's defence is excellent, but its offence hasn't been reliable enough to make a comfortable victory inevitable. Taking the points with Arizona appeals.
Denver's defence is excellent, but its offence hasn't been reliable enough to make a comfortable victory inevitable. Taking the points with Arizona appeals.
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Monday, 26 October | 7:25 am AEDT | TV: 7mate, NFL Game Pass | See the market
This NFC North showdown has all the ingredients for one of the games of the season.
Green Bay's passing attack is flying, with Jordan Love developing an excellent connection with Christian Watson and Matthew Golden. The potential return of Josh Jacobs adds another dimension to an offence that has become increasingly dangerous.
Detroit, however, has its own collection of weapons. Jahmyr Gibbs has been producing extraordinary numbers, while Jared Goff has thrown 12 touchdowns without an interception.
The fascinating tactical battle is between Lions offensive coordinator Drew Petzing and Packers defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon. The pair worked together in Arizona and know each other's systems extremely well.
Detroit has home-field advantage and the stronger collection of attacking personnel, but Green Bay is capable of matching the Lions offensively.
Green Bay has the attacking weapons to match Detroit, and getting more than a field goal in what should be a close contest appeals.
Both offences are in excellent form, although the total is already demanding.
Green Bay has the attacking weapons to match Detroit, and getting more than a field goal in what should be a close contest appeals.
Both offences are in excellent form, although the total is already demanding.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks
Monday, 26 October | 11:20 am AEDT | TV: ESPN, Kayo, NFL Game Pass | See the market
The undefeated Chiefs face a fascinating challenge against the defending Super Bowl champions in Seattle.
Kansas City has undergone a remarkable transformation offensively, with Kenneth Walker III providing the rushing threat Patrick Mahomes has rarely enjoyed during his career.
Walker leads the NFL with 665 rushing yards, helping Kansas City average 159.8 yards per game on the ground. His departure from Seattle has also had a significant impact on the Seahawks, who have struggled to establish a consistent rushing attack.
That has placed additional pressure on Sam Darnold, who has thrown seven interceptions across his past four games.
Seattle remains formidable defensively and has the advantage of playing at home, but Kansas City's balanced offence gives it several ways to win.
The Chiefs are unbeaten, have the league's leading rusher and face a Seattle offence struggling with turnovers. Getting points with Kansas City is an attractive proposition.
Walker has scored in four of his past five appearances and will be central to Kansas City's attacking plans.
The Chiefs are unbeaten, have the league's leading rusher and face a Seattle offence struggling with turnovers. Getting points with Kansas City is an attractive proposition.
Walker has scored in four of his past five appearances and will be central to Kansas City's attacking plans.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Tuesday, 27 October | 11:15 am AEDT | TV: ESPN, Kayo, Disney+, NFL Game Pass | See the market
Two bitter NFC East rivals meet with both seasons threatening to unravel.
Dallas is 2-4 and has struggled for consistency, but Philadelphia's problems are considerably worse. The Eagles have lost four consecutive games and are dealing with a serious injury crisis.
Jalen Hurts is unavailable, leaving Tanner McKee to lead an offence that has struggled badly throughout October.
Dallas hasn't been convincing either, but Dak Prescott has a clear advantage in experience and attacking weapons. The Cowboys should be capable of moving the football against an Eagles side whose confidence has taken a significant hit.
The market favours Dallas by more than a field goal, but Philadelphia's home-field advantage and the unpredictable nature of divisional contests make the handicap less straightforward.
Dallas is the likely winner, but divisional rivalries have a habit of producing tight contests. Philadelphia's home-field advantage makes taking the points appealing.
Dallas is the likely winner, but divisional rivalries have a habit of producing tight contests. Philadelphia's home-field advantage makes taking the points appealing.
The Week 7 best bet set
- New Orleans +3.5
- Atlanta +2.5
- Cincinnati Head-to-Head
- Green Bay +3.5
- Kansas City +2.5
These are the five preferred betting angles across the seven televised games. The strongest theme this week is opposing favourites in competitive match-ups, with Green Bay and Kansas City particularly interesting against Detroit and Seattle.
Editorial at The Daily Punt, covering Australian racing and sport with an eye for where the value sits.
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