Week two of the finals gives us two qualifying finals and two eliminators, and the head-to-heads are mostly priced tight — so our team has gone hunting in the handicap, total and scorer markets where a price is actually worth taking. We're leaving one game alone entirely.
Fremantle v Hawthorn — Thursday, Optus Stadium
The Dockers host this one as minor premiers and get bodies back. Fremantle will welcome back Murphy Reid, Sam Switkowski, Jye Amiss and Heath Chapman into the senior side for Thursday's qualifying final against Hawthorn at Optus Stadium. The head-to-head is cramped, so the play here is on the margin and on a mid we think can hit the scoreboard. Jack Ginnivan missed the trip to Perth in the final round of the season due to back soreness but is likely to regain his place in the team this week, according to Sam Mitchell.
Geelong v Carlton — Friday, MCG
Geelong host a Carlton side riding real momentum out of the wildcard round. Carlton will play an elimination final against Geelong after winning a wildcard clash against Melbourne at the MCG; despite conceding the first four goals of the game, the Blues improved steadily to grind the Demons down before emerging 19-point winners, with Ben Ainsworth kicking three goals and Sam Walsh and rising star Jagga Smith sensational in the midfield. The Cats have their own watch on: the biggest watch for Geelong heading into Friday night's Elimination Final with Carlton at the MCG will be the availability of star midfielder Max Holmes, who injured his ankle during the Cats' Round 19 victory over St Kilda. This shapes as a tight, contested grind, which is where we lean Geelong to hold the line.
Adelaide v Western Bulldogs — Saturday, Adelaide Oval
The Dogs come in playing genuine finals footy. The Bulldogs were the AFL's highest-scoring side last season but have developed a much stronger defensive edge in 2026, conceding the fewest points in the competition across their past ten matches. They're not at full strength — midfielder Matt Kennedy will miss the Elimination Final after suffering a concussion in the win over Collingwood, while Oskar Baker will also be unavailable, suffering a hamstring injury at training. Adelaide have their own outs to manage at home. This is a low-scoring, contested arm-wrestle on our read, and it's why we like a couple of Crows at a price to still find the goals.
Sydney v Brisbane — the pass
We're leaving this one alone. The Swans locked in a top-two finish with one round remaining but will be without Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner, Nick Blakey, James Jordon and Riley Bice for the rest of the season due to a club suspension. Sydney at a big number looks tempting, but backing a side missing that much of its spine against the reigning premier isn't value, it's hope — and the Lions will receive a huge boost with Hugh McCluggage set to return after missing the final three matches of the season. No bet.
Freo near full strength (Brennan Cox out) at Optus, where they're unbeaten this year — we think they win this comfortably.
Freo's mids get forward at Optus and Erasmus is a real chance to hit the scoreboard at a price the short forwards can't offer.
A tight, contested eliminator at the MCG should stay under this line.
If this is the low-scoring grind we expect, Berry's work around the contest gets him near goal at a price worth taking.
The multi. The two we're confident in are Freo to cover at home and a low-scoring Geelong–Carlton total.
Bodies back and unbeaten at Optus this season — the safest leg on the ticket.
Two contested sides in a September grind at the MCG.
- → Fremantle at Optus is the anchor of the week — they get four key men back and are unbeaten at Optus this season.
- → The value lives in the scorer markets: two goalscorers at $4.00 in different games beat another short favourite every time.
- → We're passing on Sydney v Brisbane — a Swans side missing five key players against the reigning premier isn't a value bet.
Finals footy is unforgiving, so bet within your means and enjoy the four days.
Editorial at The Daily Punt, covering Australian racing and sport with an eye for where the value sits.
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