A competitive nine-race program at Happy Valley, with several strong betting opportunities emerging from the form. Shooting To Top looks particularly well placed after two unlucky runs, while Le Zonda and Wukong Jewellery headline the later races.
Race 1 — D'Aguilar Handicap
1650m · Class 5
A wide-open opener. Cheerful Wongchoy drops into Class 5 and gets Zac Purton aboard after a respectable first-up effort over the mile. The All Rounder has been finishing strongly over shorter trips and looks suited stepping up to 1650m, while Windicator Family has the benefit of barrier two.
BetBunkerThe class drop and Purton booking provide a compelling case in a race lacking a standout.
Race 2 — Elgin Handicap
1650m · Class 4
Akermanis Gold looks capable of continuing his progression after an impressive course-and-distance victory first-up. He overcame interference that day, has drawn barrier one and appears to have returned a much better horse. Sure Joyful should enjoy an easier passage from barrier three after working hard early last time.
BetBunkerA strong first-up victory, improving profile and ideal barrier make him one of the better chances of the meeting.
Race 3 — Elgin Handicap
1650m · Class 4
Shooting To Top has been caught wide without cover in both runs this preparation yet still managed to finish second last time. He finally draws a favourable barrier, gets Zac Purton sticking with him and has already won over this course and distance. Decision Link is racing consistently and looks the main danger.
BetBunkerA major barrier upgrade after consecutive tough runs gives him an outstanding opportunity to return to winning form.
Race 4 — Finance Handicap
1200m · Class 4
Forerunner produced a big first-up run from barrier 11, charging home into second after being ridden quietly. He now draws barrier two and should settle considerably closer to the speed. Country Pride was outstanding despite racing wide throughout last time, but another difficult draw makes his task harder.
BetBunkerStrong recent form and a significant improvement in the draw give Forerunner the ideal opportunity to convert.
Race 5 — Finance Handicap
1200m · Class 4
Dan Attack has been a model of consistency since changing stables and arrives off consecutive seconds. His latest form has been franked by a subsequent winner, and he should be approaching peak fitness. Brownneedsfurther is chasing a hat-trick, but the additional weight makes this a tougher assignment.
BetBunkerConsistent form, a strong form reference and a suitable handicap mark give him another excellent chance.
Race 6 — HKEX Tech 100 Cup
1800m · Class 2
Le Zonda is flying, having won three straight, including a brilliant first-up victory when sweeping home from well back. He returns to his preferred 1800m and should appreciate the smaller field. Silvery Breeze has genuine claims of reversing the form after a difficult first-up run from barrier 12, while Massive Sovereign also benefits from the weight turnaround.
BetBunkerThree consecutive victories, proven course-and-distance form and a powerful finishing sprint make him the horse to beat.
Race 7 — Finance Handicap
1200m · Class 4
Cloud Nine remains a maiden after nine starts but was desperately unlucky to be beaten a nose first-up. He should improve second-up, gets another favourable draw and retains Zac Purton. Bits Superstar is the danger after an impressive last-start victory, although he must overcome an 8lb penalty.
BetBunkerNarrowly beaten first-up, fitter second-up and beautifully placed to finally break through.
Race 8 — Gage Handicap
1800m · Class 3
Fortunate Son has been outstanding winning his past two starts, but a 9lb rise and top weight make the hat-trick considerably tougher. China Win was caught wide last time and now gets barrier three, Purton aboard and a 10lb turnaround against Fortunate Son. Fivefortwo also has a strong case after flashing home from the outside draw first-up.
BetBunkerA major weight turnaround, better barrier and positive jockey switch provide an excellent opportunity to reverse recent form.
Race 9 — Harbour View Handicap
1200m · Class 3
Wukong Jewellery returned from a lengthy break with an encouraging third over this course and distance. He should improve significantly second-up, draws favourably and has shown enough ability to suggest another victory is close. Robot Lucky Star is progressing nicely and should enjoy a favourable run.
BetBunkerStrong first-up performance, second-up improvement and a favourable race map make him an excellent winning chance.
Best bets
Best bet — R3 No.2 Shooting To Top. Everything points towards a peak performance. He has been caught wide in consecutive runs, was still excellent finishing second last time and now draws barrier two with Zac Purton retaining the ride. One of the clearest race set-ups of the meeting.
Next best — R6 No.7 Le Zonda. Chasing four straight and returns to his preferred 1800m after an outstanding first-up victory. He is clearly thriving and looks capable of overcoming another rise in the weights.
Value — R8 No.9 China Win. The horse to follow for an upset. He was caught wide when fourth behind Fortunate Son last time and now meets that rival 10lb better, draws barrier three and gets Purton. A compelling turnaround in circumstances.
Editorial at The Daily Punt, covering Australian racing and sport with an eye for where the value sits.
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