Two sudden-death semis this weekend, and both host sides sit too short in the head-to-head to interest us. So the desk works down the card instead — the handicaps, the totals and the men in try-scoring form.
Roosters v Sharks — Allianz, Saturday 7:50pm
The tri-colours host Cronulla in an all-Sydney knockout, and the market has them a comfortable win. The desk isn't so sure the margin holds. These two have split their recent meetings and the Sharks beat them in the finals last season, so a six-and-a-half start looks generous for a side that keeps the Roosters honest — we're happy taking Cronulla with the points. A week on from carrying a shoulder into the Cowboys win, Braydon Trindall shapes as a genuine tryscoring chance; at his anytime price the desk thinks the market has him too far out.
Warriors v Knights — Eden Park, Sunday 4:05pm
The Warriors host their first-ever NRL final at Eden Park in front of a huge home crowd, and they're rightly favoured — but Newcastle came here off a big upset of Souths and travel with Kalyn Ponga steering the ship. In a finals arm-wrestle we lean towards points on the board, so the over on a total set at the middle appeals. For the value leg, Dane Gagai is exactly the sort of experienced centre who finds the line in a tight one, and his anytime price is worth taking on a Knights side we think scores more than the market expects.
These two split their recent meetings and Cronulla won the finals clash last year — the start is too big.
The Shire's five-eighth running hard after fighting through a shoulder knock last week — big at the price.
Two attacking sides in a do-or-die final at a wide-open Eden Park points to a game that opens up.
Finals-hardened centre who finds the line in tight games, on a Knights side we think scores more than the market has priced.
The desk has built a three-leg multi as a confidence ticket, leaning on the two host sides to at least get the win while asking Newcastle to keep it close. The one that needs luck is the Sharks handicap — we back them with the start, but a Roosters blowout beats it, so it's the leg carrying the risk.
The risk leg — we want Cronulla within a converted try, and their recent record against the Roosters backs it.
Newcastle arrive off a big upset with Ponga running the show — we want them inside a converted try.
Finals urgency plus two sides that like the ball says the points flow at Eden Park.
- → Both host sides are too short to back straight — the value is in the lines, the total and the tryscorers.
- → Trindall and Gagai are the two value plays: tryscoring chances in tight finals at prices worth taking.
- → The multi is a confidence ticket with the Sharks start as the risk leg.
Finals footy is unforgiving, so stake to what you can afford to lose. Enjoy the weekend.
Editorial at The Daily Punt, covering Australian racing and sport with an eye for where the value sits.
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