Two prelims, four proud clubs, and only two seats left at the Grand Final. Sydney host Fremantle at the SCG on Friday night, before Hawthorn take on Brisbane at the MCG on Saturday. The winners' markets are tight on both, so the desk has gone hunting through the lines and player boards for the bets that actually pay.
Sydney v Fremantle — Friday, SCG
This one shapes as a midfield arm-wrestle. Fremantle earned a 14-point semi-final win over the Cats, with Luke Jackson leading the way in the ruck, so the Swans have fair warning of who they need to contain. But this is no ordinary Sydney outfit — their undermanned side came out breathing fire and demolished the highly-fancied Lions with the club's highest score in a VFL/AFL final.
Freo are rightly favoured, but their line looks a touch skinny for a team travelling east against a side playing this well at home. We'll take Sydney to stay within reach on the handicap — at the SCG, in front of a full house, this Swans group has shown it doesn't roll over.
Hawthorn v Brisbane — Saturday, MCG
The form line is fascinating. The Hawks are arguably the form side of the competition after rolling Fremantle on the road, losing only once in their past eight — but that sole defeat was a hefty one, and it came against the Lions. Brisbane, meanwhile, were back to their best, blowing away Adelaide with a seven-minute burst to set up a resounding semi-final win.
The market has this as a genuine coin-flip, which is exactly why we're leaning to the home side on the line. Hawthorn ambushed the minor premiers to earn a week off and a home prelim, and a rested, in-form team getting a start at the 'G is a live line play. The pick of the round, though, is a player angle: Blake Hardwick has continued to dominate in the Hawks' backline, and while he started the year as a forward he was swung back to blanket opposition small forwards. As a rebounding defender who reads the ball off half-back, 20+ touches at $4.10 is real value for a man who lives on the ball. He's confirmed right to go — Hardwick was on lighter duties in training but will be available for the preliminary final.
Over at the SCG, the other value-board play is Josh Treacy over 15 disposals. He's a key forward first and foremost, so this needs him to roam up the ground and get involved, but against a depleted Sydney backline the Dockers will look to work him into the game — at $4.10 it's a chance worth taking on a busy night.
This banged-up Swans side plays with manic intensity at the SCG and won't get run off their feet.
Rested, in form and at home — the Hawks getting a start against the champs is the play.
Rebounding half-back who lives on the footy; 20+ touches is under the odds at this price.
Freo will work their key forward up the ground against a thin Swans defence — big price for a busy night.
The multi — this is a risk-leg build: two legs we're confident in, plus one that needs things to fall our way. The steady legs are the two handicaps; the risk leg is Matt Roberts to rack up 20+ disposals, who needs the game to open up but is well worth the price.
The risk leg — needs the tempo to suit, but a fair price if it does.
- → Both winners' markets are cramped, so the value is on the lines and the player boards.
- → Blake Hardwick at 20+ disposals is our best of the round — a rebounding defender priced like he won't touch it.
- → Finals footy is unpredictable; only stake what you're happy to lose. 18+.
Good luck out there this weekend.
Editorial at The Daily Punt, covering Australian racing and sport with an eye for where the value sits.
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