Both prelims are short-priced one way in the head-to-head, so the value sits in the handicaps, totals and scorer markets. That's where our card lives this week.
Dolphins v Roosters — Fri 7:50pm, Suncorp
The Dolphins earned this after a first-ever finals win over the Warriors and come in fresh, while the Roosters arrive in form — they took Cronulla apart 46-10 in the semi-final — but have taken the hard road all September after losing their qualifying final to Penrith. Rest is lopsided: Dolphins have had 13 days to recover, the Roosters just six off a midweek turnaround.
Sam Walker is named for a dramatic, rapid return from a syndesmosis injury for the Roosters — a big lift, but a halfback back that quickly on the same ankle carries real risk in a game this intense. In a packed Suncorp against a rested home side, we lean Dolphins to control it, and on the line at even money there's a bet.
Selwyn Cobbo is the reason the Dolphins' left edge scares people — he runs straight at the Roosters' right-side defence. Backing him to bag a double is where the real money is on this card.
Panthers v Knights — Sun 4:00pm, Accor
Penrith are rested, in a seventh straight prelim, and the head-to-head price gives you nothing. The story is Newcastle's defence: they've conceded only 20 points across two finals, grinding out wins over Souths and the Warriors, and that's the case for the double-digit line rather than the outright. We're with the Knights +10.5 — this is a side built to make a contest tight and low-scoring, and Penrith have been happy to win ugly all September.
For the scorer play, Bradman Best is the preferred Knights tryscorer, attacking Penrith's right edge (Blaize Talagi and Thomas Jenkins) — Newcastle need to give their powerful centre early ball. At his price, that's the value tryscorer of the round.
Rested home side in a packed Suncorp against a Roosters outfit on a six-day turnaround.
The Dolphins' left-edge weapon runs straight at the Roosters' right — priced to give us a real shot at a double.
A side conceding 10 a game in the finals, built to keep it tight against a Penrith team happy to win ugly.
Newcastle's go-to centre attacking Penrith's right edge with early ball — the value scorer on the card.
The multi — two legs we're confident in plus one that needs luck. The Dolphins line and the Knights covering +10.5 are the solid legs; the risk leg is Brian To'o for a double at Accor. It's a genuine price play, not a coin flip: To'o sealed the qualifying final with a late try, and Penrith winning by double figures usually means their left wing has crossed more than once.
Fresh legs and a home deck against a short-turnaround Roosters.
Their finals defence says this stays inside the line.
The risk leg — Penrith's left winger for a double if they run away with it late.
- → Head-to-head prices are cramped both games — the value is in the lines, totals and scorers.
- → Cobbo's a double is our best bet: the Dolphins attack through him against the Roosters' right edge.
- → Newcastle's finals defence is the reason to take the points, not the outright.
Bet within your means, and enjoy the football.
Editorial at The Daily Punt, covering Australian racing and sport with an eye for where the value sits.
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