Nine games, two days and some serious NFL action for Australian fans. Week 5 throws up a London clash, a blockbuster NFC West showdown and a Monday night shootout between Buffalo and the Rams. We've dug into the form, injuries and match-ups to find the strongest betting angles — and there are a few favourites we're happy to oppose.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Monday, 12 October | 12:30 am AEDT | TV: | See the market
Jacksonville has been one of the early success stories of the season, sitting 3-1 and conceding no more than 20 points in any game. The Jaguars have been particularly efficient offensively, recording just four three-and-outs across their opening four matches.
Philadelphia, meanwhile, is struggling with injuries and disruption to its offensive line. Saquon Barkley is among the players carrying fitness concerns, and the Eagles face a tough assignment against a Jacksonville side familiar with playing in London.
The Jaguars deserve favouritism, but there is a difference between winning and covering a big handicap. Philadelphia still has enough quality to stay competitive, particularly if Jalen Hurts can manufacture points with his legs. Jacksonville might win, but the market is asking plenty.
Taking more than a touchdown appeals. Jacksonville is the likely winner, but Philadelphia has enough talent to keep the margin respectable.
Taking more than a touchdown appeals. Jacksonville is the likely winner, but Philadelphia has enough talent to keep the margin respectable.
Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots
Monday, 12 October | 4:00 am AEDT | TV: | See the market
New England produced its best performance of the season by upsetting previously unbeaten Buffalo, with Drake Maye finally delivering the sort of game Patriots supporters have been waiting for.
But don't underestimate Las Vegas. The Raiders are 3-1 and pushed Kansas City hard last week, with Kirk Cousins producing an impressive performance against Patrick Mahomes. Their running game remains inconsistent, although Brock Bowers gives Cousins a dangerous receiving option.
The Patriots have the stronger defence and deserve to be favourites at home, but this looks much closer than the market suggests. Interestingly, all five NFL.com analysts predict New England to win by three points or fewer.
The Raiders have shown enough to suggest they can stay within a field goal, even if New England gets the result.
The Raiders have shown enough to suggest they can stay within a field goal, even if New England gets the result.
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Monday, 12 October | 4:00 am AEDT | TV: | See the market
Indianapolis has found a reliable attacking weapon in Jonathan Taylor, but Daniel Jones continues to make life difficult with costly turnovers.
That's a dangerous combination against Pittsburgh. The Steelers have forced two turnovers in each of their opening four games and will be looking to bounce back after a frustrating defeat to Cleveland.
Taylor is capable of controlling the contest if Indianapolis establishes its running game, but Pittsburgh's defence is built to punish quarterbacks who make mistakes. Jones has been guilty of forcing throws under pressure, and that could be decisive.
Neither side has been particularly convincing, but home-field advantage and Pittsburgh's ability to create takeaways give the Steelers a narrow edge.
Pittsburgh's defence looks capable of creating the decisive turnover.
Pittsburgh's defence looks capable of creating the decisive turnover.
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
Monday, 12 October | 4:00 am AEDT | TV: | See the market
Chicago's rushing attack has been outstanding, averaging 196.3 yards per game, and now faces a Green Bay defence ranked 28th against the run.
The Packers have also lost linebacker Edgerrin Cooper for the season, making an already difficult match-up even more challenging.
Chicago's obvious concern is quarterback Tyson Bagent, who is filling in for Caleb Williams. Green Bay will look to put him under pressure and force the Bears into obvious passing situations.
But if Chicago can establish its ground game early, it should control possession and keep Bagent out of trouble. Green Bay has also struggled badly to run the football, averaging just 58 yards per game, leaving its offence heavily dependent on the passing game.
The Bears have a significant advantage on the ground and only need to win by two points.
The Bears have a significant advantage on the ground and only need to win by two points.
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers
Monday, 12 October | 7:05 am AEDT | TV: | See the market
Denver has developed an unfortunate habit of giving opponents a head start. The Broncos have scored just 13 first-half points through four games, repeatedly relying on late comebacks.
But the Chargers have problems of their own. Los Angeles is winless, and injuries to offensive tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater have left Justin Herbert dangerously exposed.
That could prove decisive against Denver's aggressive pass rush. Herbert remains capable of producing something special, but consistently moving the football without reliable protection is a massive challenge.
Denver's secondary also has injury concerns, so this isn't a straightforward assignment. However, if the Broncos can generate pressure without committing extra defenders, they should be able to restrict the Chargers' passing attack.
The Chargers' offensive-line problems give Denver the advantage, but the Broncos' slow starts make laying a sizeable handicap less attractive.
The Chargers' offensive-line problems give Denver the advantage, but the Broncos' slow starts make laying a sizeable handicap less attractive.
Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals
Monday, 12 October | 7:25 am AEDT | TV: | See the market
This could be an absolute shootout.
Detroit has scored at least 24 points in every game this season, but its defence has also conceded at least 24 in all four. Arizona isn't much better defensively, allowing 30 or more points in each of its past three matches.
That's a dangerous recipe when Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta are coming to town.
The Cardinals have enough weapons to respond, particularly through Trey McBride and Michael Wilson, while Jacoby Brissett has shown he can move the football effectively.
Detroit should be able to score freely, but its defensive weaknesses mean Arizona is capable of staying involved. The Lions look the stronger team, although the points market is particularly interesting.
Both teams have the offensive weapons to score heavily and neither defence has shown much ability to consistently shut opponents down.
Also worth considering: Detroit -4.5. The Lions have the stronger offence and Arizona's defensive problems make a five-point victory achievable.
Both teams have the offensive weapons to score heavily and neither defence has shown much ability to consistently shut opponents down.
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Monday, 12 October | 7:25 am AEDT | TV: | See the market
One of the games of the round.
San Francisco is undefeated at 4-0, with Brock Purdy playing outstanding football behind an offensive line that hasn't allowed him to be sacked this season.
But Seattle presents a serious challenge.
The Seahawks are conceding just 246.8 total yards per game, 4.0 yards per play and 144.8 passing yards per game. They've also collected six interceptions, making them one of the NFL's most formidable defensive units.
Purdy struggled against Seattle last season, throwing two touchdowns and four interceptions across three meetings. The Seahawks clearly have a defensive approach capable of troubling him.
Seattle deserves favouritism at home, but San Francisco is too good to dismiss. In a fierce divisional contest, the safer approach is to back the home side to win rather than demand a comfortable margin.
Seattle's outstanding defence and previous success against Purdy give the Seahawks the edge.
Seattle's outstanding defence and previous success against Purdy give the Seahawks the edge.
Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons
Monday, 12 October | 11:20 am AEDT | TV: | See the market
Atlanta has been building serious momentum, and Bijan Robinson is a major reason why.
The Falcons' star running back has rushed for 339 yards and four touchdowns across his past two games, giving Atlanta an attacking weapon capable of dominating possession.
Baltimore has a formidable ground game of its own through Derrick Henry, but the biggest question surrounds Lamar Jackson's ankle injury. If Jackson misses the game, Tyler Huntley will need to provide enough passing threat to prevent Atlanta from concentrating on stopping Henry.
The Falcons have looked much more dangerous with Michael Penix Jr. under centre and should fancy their chances of continuing that form at home.
Baltimore is too talented to dismiss completely, but Atlanta has the stronger recent momentum and a clear advantage if Jackson is unavailable.
Atlanta's improving offence and Robinson's outstanding form make the Falcons appealing, particularly if Baltimore is without Jackson.
His recent scoring form is exceptional and he should again be heavily involved around the goal line.
Atlanta's improving offence and Robinson's outstanding form make the Falcons appealing, particularly if Baltimore is without Jackson.
His recent scoring form is exceptional and he should again be heavily involved around the goal line.
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams
Tuesday, 13 October | 11:15 am AEDT | TV: | See the market
Week 5 finishes with a beauty.
Buffalo arrives in Los Angeles looking to bounce back from its first defeat of the season, with Josh Allen facing a Rams side that has been dangerous offensively but inconsistent in key moments.
The Bills' defence has been a concern, particularly against the pass. That should encourage Matthew Stafford, who has Puka Nacua and Davante Adams at his disposal.
But Stafford has also been guilty of costly turnovers, throwing six touchdowns and six interceptions through the opening month.
Allen remains the biggest individual weapon in this contest. His ability to create plays through the air and on the ground makes Buffalo dangerous regardless of the opposition.
The Rams deserve favouritism at home, but giving Allen more than a field goal is a significant risk. This shapes as a close, entertaining contest.
The Bills have enough attacking firepower to stay within a field goal, even if the Rams ultimately get the result.
The Bills have enough attacking firepower to stay within a field goal, even if the Rams ultimately get the result.
The Week 5 best bet set
Philadelphia +7.5
Las Vegas +3.5
Chicago -1.5
Detroit v Arizona Over 54.5 Points
Atlanta -3.5
These are the five preferred betting angles from the nine televised games, with Detroit–Arizona offering the strongest case for a high-scoring contest and Las Vegas appealing as an underdog capable of keeping things close.
Editorial at The Daily Punt, covering Australian racing and sport with an eye for where the value sits.
Betting should be fun, not a way to make money. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit, and for free, confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
