Round 25 is business end stuff — returns everywhere, a season-ending blow to Brisbane and a couple of blowout lines that push the real value into the tryscorer and handicap markets. We've steered clear of the cramped favourites and gone where the price actually pays.
Raiders v Broncos — Friday, GIO Stadium
This is the game of the round. Brisbane lose Reece Walsh for the season to a syndesmosis injury, Hayze Perham shifts to fullback and Ben Hunt is promoted to start at halfback. That's a huge reshuffle to a spine on the road, and Canberra get a boost of their own — Simi Sasagi returns from a shoulder injury in the centres for what is Josh Papalii's final home game for the Raiders. An emotional GIO send-off with a rejigged Broncos spine to attack: we're with Canberra to control it, but laying big points on a side that grinds rather than blows teams away is the trap, so we'll take the over on a game with plenty of edge for both.
Souths v Warriors — Saturday, Accor Stadium
The Warriors travel with a spine held together by tape: Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad is suspended so Taine Tuaupiki starts, and with Luke Metcalf sidelined by a hamstring, Chanel Harris-Tavita moves to halfback with Luke Hanson the new five-eighth in just his second NRL match. A rookie five-eighth steering a reshuffled backline against a Souths side building nicely — that's why we lean the Rabbitohs on the line, and it's why bench man Morgan Gannon is a genuine roughie to cross in a scrappy game.
The best bets
Reshuffled Broncos spine forces Canberra to attack, and both edges will find points at GIO.
Warriors are down to a rookie five-eighth and a reshuffled spine on the road.
Walsh's absence means Raiders' tries will come from new places.
Back-rower named on a bench that will see plenty of ball in a scrappy contest — a real chance to cross at a genuine price.
Back from a hamstring and Melbourne will throw everything at a home Thursday-nighter — his darts from dummy-half are a tryscoring weapon.
Multi of the week
This one's a two-solid-plus-one-risk ticket. The two legs we're confident in are the Souths line and the Raiders over; the risk leg is the Titans getting a start on the line against a Cronulla side missing five-eighth Braydon Trindall, whose shoulder dislocation brings Niwhai Puru into the halves alongside Nicho Hynes. A reshuffled Sharks spine on the road is exactly the sort of thing that keeps a home underdog inside the points.
Rookie-steered Warriors backline gives Souths every chance to stay inside the line.
Points at both ends with Brisbane's spine rebuilt on the road.
Sharks are down a recognised five-eighth with Puru into the halves — the Titans keep this closer than the line suggests at home.
- → The short favourites offer nothing this week — the value is on the lines and in the scorer markets.
- → Brisbane's spine is rebuilt around Walsh's absence; that opens up both the Raiders and the game total.
- → The Warriors travel with a rookie five-eighth, which shapes both our Souths line and the Gannon play.
Editorial at The Daily Punt, covering Australian racing and sport with an eye for where the value sits.
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