The final field is in, the barriers have been drawn and King Zone and Fizzer are back to tackle Australia's biggest race.
With several leading chances ruled out following veterinary inspections, the market has tightened considerably. Both agree the race lacks depth, but there are still some genuine betting opportunities.
Shockletz β the Australian hope
Both King and Fizzer are particularly keen on Shockletz, who secured her Melbourne Cup berth by winning The Archer over 2500m.
Fizzer believes Ciaron Maher has prepared the mare beautifully, keeping her ticking over without attracting additional weight.
King agrees and points to her strong performance in a genuinely run Archer as evidence she can handle 3200m.
With just 51kg and the possibility of blinkers going back on, King believes she can be finishing strongly.
Shockletz is firmly on both boys' shortlists, with Fizzer particularly keen around $11.
Point Of Law β talent versus experience
The lightly raced Point Of Law impressed both boys with his Geelong Cup victory.
King believes he has genuine Group 1 ability and notes that Ethan Brown and Ciaron Maher have expressed confidence in his staying potential.
However, there are concerns.
Point Of Law will be having just his sixth career start, and Fizzer worries he may race too keenly over 3200m, particularly in front of a massive Flemington crowd.
King also considers the weather a factor, with rain potentially reducing his confidence.
At around $7β$8, both acknowledge his ability but question whether the price represents value.
Trustyourinstinct β the class international
Trustyourinstinct brings some of the strongest international form into the race, including a Curragh Cup victory and an Irish St Leger placing.
King believes he is one of the class horses in the field, but his 57kg impost and wide barrier are significant concerns.
Fizzer was impressed by his latest performance but believes he needs a dry track.
James McDonald takes the ride from barrier 18, leaving plenty to overcome.
The boys agree he's a major contender, although the shortening price makes him less attractive.
Hopewell Rock β the value has gone
King was particularly interested in Hopewell Rock when he was available around $18.
The British-trained runner has performed well in strong international fields and will have Zac Lloyd aboard from barrier 15.
However, his price has shortened to around $9 following the scratchings.
Both boys respect his credentials, but the lack of an Australian lead-up run and the reduced odds are concerns.
Middle Earth β form a major concern
Despite attracting support in betting, neither King nor Fizzer is particularly enthusiastic about Middle Earth.
King points to his disappointing recent form, questioning whether he is going well enough to win a Melbourne Cup.
Fizzer agrees, believing his current price of around $13 is too short given his preparation and the uncertainty surrounding track conditions.
Juja Kibo β can he handle the pressure?
The impressive Moonee Valley Gold Cup winner Juja Kibo has earned his place in the Melbourne Cup field, but both boys are wary of his form.
King believes his best performances have come in slowly run races where he can unleash a powerful sprint.
He questions whether that style will be effective in a genuinely run 3200m Melbourne Cup.
Fizzer also has reservations about the Moonee Valley Gold Cup form, suggesting the race may not prove the strongest guide.
Kizlyar β an improver at big odds?
Both boys are prepared to forgive Kizlyar's disappointing Moonee Valley Gold Cup performance.
Fizzer believes he was ridden too conservatively and would be better suited rolling forward at a stronger tempo.
King agrees the 3200m should suit and believes the horse can improve significantly.
Neither makes him a leading selection, but both consider him a possible inclusion in exotic bets.
The horses they're taking on
King and Fizzer also identify several runners they are reluctant to back.
- Enfjaar β Questions about his ability to run a strong 3200m following the Caulfield Cup.
- Sons And Lovers β A significant rise in class and concerns about the weight.
- James J Braddock β Barrier 24, the distance and international ratings raise doubts.
- Knight's Choice β Carries considerably more weight than when winning the Melbourne Cup previously.
Both believe the race will feature genuine early speed, which could favour runners capable of settling and finishing strongly.
King's Melbourne Cup Set
BetBunkerKing has been impressed by his rapid progression and outstanding Geelong Cup victory. A lightly raced horse with enormous potential, although settling over 3200m remains the key.
A genuine staying mare carrying just 51kg. King believes her preparation has been perfectly timed and expects her to be finishing strongly.
Trifecta box: 2, 12, 20, 24
First Four
1st: 2, 12, 20, 24
2nd: 2, 12, 20, 24
3rd: 2, 10, 11, 12, 14, 16, 19, 20, 24
4th: 2, 10, 11, 12, 14, 16, 19, 20, 24
Fizzer's Melbourne Cup Set
BetBunkerFizzer rates the international a genuine winning chance, particularly on a dry track. His strong overseas form and impressive finishing ability make him a major contender.
Fizzer's preferred Australian runner. He believes Ciaron Maher has prepared her beautifully for the 3200m, with the light weight a major advantage.
Trifecta
1st: 2, 24, 12, 20
2nd: 1, 2, 4, 12, 14, 19, 20, 24
3rd: 1, 2, 4, 12, 14, 19, 20, 22, 24
First Four
1st: 2, 24, 12, 20
2nd: 1, 2, 4, 12, 14, 19, 20, 24
3rd: 1, 2, 4, 12, 14, 19, 20, 22, 24
4th: 1, 2, 4, 12, 14, 19, 20, 22, 24
Cup Week β more tips and content coming
The Melbourne Cup Set is just the beginning of a big week of racing content from Daily Punt.
Head to the Cup Hub on the Bet Bunker app for:
- Melbourne Cup Day tips and selections
- Kyneton Cup Day tips
- Oaks Day tips
- Champions Day tips
- Call of the Card coverage and analysis
King and Fizzer will also provide exclusive Cup Week betting sets covering races around Australia.
The Melbourne Cup is almost here. The boys have done their early homework β now it's time for the final form, the Call of the Card and the big race itself.
Editorial at The Daily Punt, covering Australian racing and sport with an eye for where the value sits.
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