Week 6 serves up another massive NFL program for Australian fans, with eight televised games across Monday and Tuesday. The action kicks off in London with Houston taking on Jacksonville before a string of fascinating divisional clashes, including the Chargers against the unbeaten Chiefs and San Francisco looking to keep its perfect record intact against Washington. We've weighed up the form, injuries and key match-ups to find the strongest betting angles, with a few favourites worth following and some dangerous underdogs capable of causing an upset.
All dates and start times are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Monday, 19 October | 12:30 am AEDT | TV: ESPN, Kayo, Disney+, NFL Game Pass | See the market
Jacksonville returns to London riding high after its dramatic victory over Philadelphia, but Houston might be a more dangerous opponent than its 1-4 record suggests.
The Texans finally broke through against Tennessee and have added talented receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. to an offence that desperately needed another weapon. More importantly, Houston's defensive front is capable of causing serious problems for Jacksonville's injury-hit offensive line.
The Jaguars have the advantage of familiarity with London and have won four of their first five games. But their offence hasn't been firing consistently, and Houston looks better equipped to exploit their weaknesses than Philadelphia was last week.
This shapes as a low-scoring, physical contest rather than a comfortable Jacksonville victory.
The Texans' defensive front gives them a genuine chance of winning outright. Taking the points appeals in a game that could be decided by a field goal.
The Texans' defensive front gives them a genuine chance of winning outright. Taking the points appeals in a game that could be decided by a field goal.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
Monday, 19 October | 4:00 am AEDT | TV: 7mate, 7plus Sport, NFL Game Pass | See the market
Baltimore heads into this AFC North clash without Lamar Jackson, but the Ravens still have a major weapon in Derrick Henry.
Cleveland's run defence has struggled and is dealing with injuries, while Baltimore boasts one of the league's most productive rushing attacks. Backup quarterback Tyler Huntley showed last week that he can manage the offence effectively, particularly when the ground game is working.
The Browns have their own attacking problems. Quinshon Judkins is averaging just three yards per carry, leaving Cleveland heavily reliant on its passing game.
Baltimore's defence has also received a boost with Trey Hendrickson returning to practice. Even without Jackson, the Ravens look better equipped to control possession and dictate the tempo.
The Ravens have a clear advantage on the ground, but Jackson's absence makes the handicap less appealing.
Cleveland's struggling run defence creates an attractive match-up for Henry, provided the available yardage line is reasonable.
The Ravens have a clear advantage on the ground, but Jackson's absence makes the handicap less appealing.
Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Monday, 19 October | 4:00 am AEDT | TV: ESPN, Kayo, Disney+, NFL Game Pass | See the market
Philadelphia's season is rapidly unravelling, and Carolina arrives with a genuine opportunity to pile on the misery.
The Eagles have lost three consecutive games and return from London with a lengthy injury list. Jalen Hurts is unavailable, Lane Johnson has retired, and the running back stocks have been badly depleted.
That is particularly damaging against a Carolina defence that has struggled to stop the run. Under normal circumstances, Philadelphia would look to exploit that weakness, but its offensive personnel problems make doing so considerably harder.
The Panthers, meanwhile, are fresh from a bye and have had extra time to prepare. Carolina has its own flaws, but this is a favourable spot against an Eagles side struggling to move the football consistently.
Philadelphia's injury problems are too significant to ignore. The Panthers have the preparation advantage and look capable of winning by more than a field goal.
Philadelphia's injury problems are too significant to ignore. The Panthers have the preparation advantage and look capable of winning by more than a field goal.
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams
Monday, 19 October | 7:05 am AEDT | TV: ESPN, Kayo, Disney+, NFL Game Pass | See the market
The Rams have been frustratingly inconsistent, but this looks an ideal opportunity to get their season moving.
Los Angeles is averaging an impressive 424.4 offensive yards per game, with Matthew Stafford surrounded by an outstanding collection of attacking weapons. Arizona, meanwhile, has the NFL's worst scoring defence.
That is a worrying combination for the Cardinals, particularly against a Rams attack capable of moving the football through both the air and on the ground.
The Rams have also been solid defensively, ranking third in total yards allowed and fifth on third down. Arizona has enough talent through Trey McBride to create occasional problems, but sustaining drives against this defence will be difficult.
Los Angeles should win comfortably, although the large handicap leaves little room for a sluggish start.
The Rams have a significant advantage on both sides of the football. Arizona's defensive problems make a comfortable home victory a realistic expectation, although this is a demanding handicap.
The Rams have a significant advantage on both sides of the football. Arizona's defensive problems make a comfortable home victory a realistic expectation, although this is a demanding handicap.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Monday, 19 October | 7:25 am AEDT | TV: 7mate, 7plus Sport, NFL Game Pass | See the market
It's difficult to imagine two teams arriving at this divisional clash in more contrasting circumstances.
Kansas City is undefeated at 4-0 and fresh from a bye, while the Chargers have lost their opening five games and continue to battle a crippling injury list.
Justin Herbert has already been sacked 17 times, and the Chargers' offensive line faces another enormous challenge against Chris Jones and George Karlaftis.
Kansas City has injury concerns among its receivers, but Patrick Mahomes still has Travis Kelce and enough attacking options to expose a struggling Chargers side. The absence of Derwin James from the Los Angeles secondary only adds to the problem.
The Chiefs should control this contest, although divisional games can be unpredictable and the handicap is substantial.
The Chiefs have the superior quarterback protection, defence and preparation. Los Angeles will need a dramatic turnaround to stay competitive.
The Chiefs have the superior quarterback protection, defence and preparation. Los Angeles will need a dramatic turnaround to stay competitive.
Buffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders
Monday, 19 October | 7:25 am AEDT | TV: ESPN, Kayo, Disney+, NFL Game Pass | See the market
Buffalo has an excellent opportunity to bounce back against a Las Vegas side whose promising start has quickly lost momentum.
The Raiders opened 3-0 but have since lost consecutive games, including a 45-17 hiding from New England. Their defence has conceded an average of 34 points across its past three matches.
That is dangerous territory against Josh Allen.
Buffalo has its own defensive concerns, which should give Kirk Cousins opportunities to move the football. But the Raiders' running game ranks among the league's worst, placing enormous pressure on Cousins to keep pace.
Allen gives Buffalo a considerable attacking advantage, and the Bills should create enough scoring opportunities to expose Las Vegas' defensive weaknesses.
The Raiders have been leaking points, and Buffalo's attacking weapons should be too much to contain.
Las Vegas' recent defensive performances make the Bills' scoring markets particularly interesting.
The Raiders have been leaking points, and Buffalo's attacking weapons should be too much to contain.
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
Monday, 19 October | 11:20 am AEDT | TV: ESPN, Kayo, Disney+ | See the market
This has all the ingredients for a Sunday night shootout.
Dallas has conceded at least 375 yards in each of its opening five games and allowed 20 or more points in 12 consecutive matches. That's a worrying defensive record heading into Lambeau Field.
Green Bay's passing game came alive last week, with Jordan Love throwing for 367 yards and two touchdowns against Chicago. Christian Watson and Matthew Golden have been outstanding downfield, and both should fancy their chances against a Cowboys secondary that has struggled all season.
Dallas has enough offensive talent through Dak Prescott to contribute, particularly with the benefit of extra rest. But its inability to stop opponents makes Green Bay difficult to oppose.
The Packers should find plenty of opportunities through the air, although Dallas is capable of keeping the scoreboard moving.
The Packers' passing attack has an excellent matchup against Dallas' struggling secondary, and the small handicap makes them appealing.
Both offences have the potential to score heavily, particularly if Dallas can respond through the air.
The Packers' passing attack has an excellent matchup against Dallas' struggling secondary, and the small handicap makes them appealing.
Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers
Tuesday, 20 October | 11:15 am AEDT | TV: ESPN, Kayo, Disney+ | See the market
San Francisco is the NFL's last unbeaten NFC team, sitting 5-0, and returns home looking to continue its outstanding start.
Washington has struggled for consistency, but Jayden Daniels gives the Commanders a genuine wildcard. He looked back to his explosive best last week, throwing for 199 yards while adding 103 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
Daniels' mobility creates problems that traditional quarterbacks simply don't, particularly against a San Francisco defence missing suspended linebacker Dre Greenlaw.
However, the 49ers still have Fred Warner, one of the game's outstanding defensive players, and an offence that has repeatedly found ways to win.
San Francisco deserves favouritism, but Washington's quarterback makes a big handicap dangerous. If Daniels reproduces last week's form, the Commanders can stay competitive.
Daniels' ability to create explosive plays gives Washington a realistic chance of staying within a touchdown.
Daniels' ability to create explosive plays gives Washington a realistic chance of staying within a touchdown.
The Week 6 best bet set
Houston +2.5
Carolina -3.5
Buffalo -4.5
Green Bay -1.5
Washington +7.5
These are the five preferred selections from the eight televised games. Houston appeals as a live underdog in London, Carolina gets a favourable matchup against an injury-hit Philadelphia side, and Washington has enough attacking upside to challenge San Francisco despite the gap between their records.
Editorial at The Daily Punt, covering Australian racing and sport with an eye for where the value sits.
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