Nine races at Happy Valley tonight and there are a few races where the form lines up particularly strongly. We've been selective rather than forcing a bet into every race, with Cloud Nine standing out as the strongest play of the meeting.
Race 1 — Nam Fung Handicap
1650m · Class 5 · 8:40pm
A tricky Class 5 opener with several runners struggling to win. Telecom Power was doing his best work late first-up over 1200m and the return to 1650m looks much more suitable. His light weight after the claim gives him another chance to break through.
BetBunkerRace 2 — Deep Water Bay Handicap
1200m · Class 4 · 9:10pm
Matzden returned with an excellent second over 1200m and should have taken plenty from the run. His previous Valley appearance was better than the result suggests after being caught wide, and he gets another chance over his preferred trip.
BetBunkerStrong first-up performance, proven ability at the trip and multiple positive indicators point to him being ready to win.
Race 3 — Wong Chuk Hang Handicap
1650m · Class 4 · 9:40pm
Amazing Gaze finally put it all together with an emphatic course-and-distance victory first-up. He has been hit with an 8lb rise, but the manner of that victory suggested there could be more to come. Shooting To Top gets a significant turnaround at the weights and is the danger.
BetBunkerThe breakthrough win was authoritative and he remains ideally suited around the Valley mile.
Race 4 — Deep Water Bay Handicap
1200m · Class 4 · 10:10pm
Cloud Nine has gone close several times around Happy Valley and finally gets the set-up he has been looking for. After repeatedly drawing poorly, he lands barrier two, has trialled strongly and gets Zac Purton aboard. Everything points towards a peak performance first-up.
BetBunkerExcellent draw, strong Valley form, encouraging trial and a major jockey booking make him one of the clearest plays of the meeting.
Race 5 — Hong Kong Country Club Challenge Cup
1650m · Class 4 · 10:40pm
One of the more open races of the night. Ivy League hasn't won for some time but drops to a career-low mark, draws barrier one and has previously performed well fresh over this course and distance. Inno Super brings the more reliable recent form.
BetBunkerGets a much easier assignment from an ideal draw and is handicapped to produce a significant form reversal.
Race 6 — Island Handicap
1000m · Class 4 · 11:10pm
Jumbo Blessing beat Superb King over this exact course and distance first-up, but the rematch becomes very interesting. Superb King endured a wide run that night and now draws three while meeting the winner substantially better at the weights. Jumbo Blessing remains the obvious danger as he chases three straight.
BetBunkerGets the combination of a much better draw and a favourable weight turnaround after losing by less than a length first-up.
Race 7 — Mount Butler Handicap
1200m · Class 3 · 11:45pm
There are too many conflicting form angles to have strong conviction. Akashvani should improve second-up and returns to a more suitable sprint trip, while Prestige Always and Wukong Jewellery both have cases of their own.
No bet.
Race 8 — Mount Butler Handicap
1200m · Class 3 · 12:15am
Danica's Choice finished last season on a steep upward curve, winning before being beaten only narrowly at this level. His preparation for the return has been particularly encouraging and he looks capable of progressing again this season. Leading Agility is the danger after an excellent first Hong Kong campaign.
BetBunkerProgressive profile, strong course form and an excellent lead-up preparation make him very appealing fresh.
Race 9 — Tai Hang Handicap
1800m · Class 3 · 12:50am
A terrific finale with several legitimate winning chances. Windlord improved dramatically at his first run for the new stable when second over 1650m and the step to 1800m looks ideal. Ka Ying Generation drops back into Class 3 company with serious form credentials, while Seraph Gabriel also demands respect.
BetBunkerThe first-up improvement was substantial and the extra 150m looks exactly what he wants despite another awkward draw.
The secondary selection, dropping back into Class 3 with serious form credentials.
Best bets
Best bet — Cloud Nine (Race 4). Gets virtually everything in his favour: proven Valley form, barrier two, an encouraging trial and Zac Purton taking the ride.
Next best — Danica's Choice (Race 8). A progressive sprinter who finished last season in excellent order and has prepared strongly for his return.
Value — Superb King (Race 6). Beaten less than a length by Jumbo Blessing first-up despite covering ground from the outside barrier. The much better draw and favourable weight turnaround give him an excellent chance to reverse the result.
Good luck at the Valley.
Editorial at The Daily Punt, covering Australian racing and sport with an eye for where the value sits.
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