Fremantle and Brisbane meet at the MCG on Saturday afternoon, the minor premier against a Lions side chasing a rare third straight flag. The head-to-head is the most heavily traded market on the board and holds the least value, so the desk has worked down the card to the lines, the total and the scorers.
The shape of it
The Lions win their footy through the middle — their game is built on clearance and scoring from stoppage, and that engine carried them past Hawthorn in a shootout preliminary final. Fremantle's answer is a genuine tall-forward mix and a midfield that stood up under pressure to run over Sydney late. They met in Round 12, where the Dockers won at the Gabba behind their forward trio.
That points the desk two ways: a tight, contested grind favours the side that can steady it, and a game with this much midfield class in it should not be a low-scoring affair.
Best bets
The desk leans Fremantle on the handicap start. In a decider between closely matched sides the start is where the value is, and the Dockers have already shown this year they can beat this opponent.
On the scorers, Josh Dunkley is the standout price play. He's a co-captain and a permanent inside midfielder who takes the ball to the contest and pushes forward — at $4.00 the anytime market is treating him as a bit-part goalkicker, and the desk doesn't. Dayne Zorko is the longer swing: he plays as a rebounding defender who drifts forward and hits the scoreboard when Brisbane are on top, and at $5.00 there's more than enough in the price to take him on.
Line-ball decider between evenly matched sides, and Fremantle already beat this opponent this year — take the start.
Co-captain and inside midfielder who pushes forward — the price treats him as a non-scorer and we disagree.
Rebounding half-back who drifts forward and hits the scoreboard when the Lions get on top.
Two of the best midfields in the competition on the game's biggest deck — this should be an open, high-scoring final.
The multi
This is the risk-leg shape: two legs the desk is confident in plus one that needs things to fall our way. The two solid legs are Fremantle's start and the total going over. The risk leg is Zorko at $5.00 — he's a defender first, so it's the goal that needs the game to open up, but at that price it's the one worth chancing.
Confidence leg — the start covers a close decider.
Confidence leg — midfield class on both sides points to an open game.
The risk leg — a defender who scores when Brisbane are humming, taken purely on the price.
Enjoy the day, and bet within your means.
Editorial at The Daily Punt, covering Australian racing and sport with an eye for where the value sits.
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