Dan O'Sullivan's 2026 Spring Contenders: The Horses to Follow

Spring is officially upon us and with the good horses back at the races, The Daily Punt sat down with respected form analyst Dan O'Sullivan to take an early look at the major races of the 2026 Spring Carnival.

From Autumn Glow and Sheza Alibi at the top of the weight-for-age ranks to the emerging three-year-olds, Ka Ying Rising's Everest defence and a $15 Melbourne Cup play, Dan worked through the major spring markets looking for the horses he believes are over the odds — and those he wants to take on.

Here are the major takeaways.

Autumn Glow and Sheza Alibi — two superstars

The Winx Stakes gave us an early contender for race of the spring when Autumn Glow and Sheza Alibi produced a memorable clash at Randwick.

Dan came away believing both mares had enhanced their reputations.

Autumn Glow returned at a level just below the peak she reached third-up last preparation, suggesting there could be further improvement to come.

Dan was also adamant there had been an overreaction to her only previous defeat, when she was beaten by Sir Delius over 2000m.

That race was run at an exceptionally strong tempo and Dan believes Autumn Glow's performance under those circumstances actually strengthened the case that she will eventually be effective at 2000m.

But if he had to choose between the two mares at that distance, he would lean towards Sheza Alibi.

Her extraordinary Doncaster performance convinced Dan she possesses the stamina to become an elite 2000m horse. She was still powering through the line at the end of a brutally fast 1600m, something Dan believes points towards even greater things over further.

Dan's verdict: Both are exceptional, but Sheza Alibi could potentially become an elite world-class horse at 2000m.

Makybe Diva Stakes — Sheza Alibi

If Sheza Alibi heads to the Makybe Diva Stakes, Dan expects her to be extremely hard to beat.

He is far less interested in Sir Delius over 1600m. While Sir Delius has established himself as one of the country's best horses over 2000m and beyond, Dan believes there are plenty of horses capable of matching his ratings at a mile.

Sheza Alibi is a completely different proposition at the distance.

Dan also sounded a warning on Aeliana following her disappointing return in the Winx Stakes. He remains a huge believer in her long-term ability and even thinks she could win a Melbourne Cup at some stage in her career, but described her first-up performance as a genuine concern.

Dan's early lean: Sheza Alibi

Epsom Handicap — Attica

The Epsom is a race Dan likes attacking through emerging four-year-olds.

Four-year-olds have an outstanding historical record in the race and Dan believes the profile makes sense: lightly exposed horses who can improve rapidly while still getting into a major handicap with a favourable weight.

That led him to Attica.

The Joe Pride-trained four-year-old caught Dan's attention first-up, particularly with the market support behind him and the way he showed unexpected tactical speed.

He already has a solid ratings base, should receive a light weight and, importantly, still has scope to improve.

Dan's value runner: Attica

King Charles III Stakes — send Autumn Glow here

One of the biggest questions of the spring is whether Autumn Glow should tackle Ka Ying Rising in The Everest or remain at her preferred distance and contest the King Charles III Stakes.

Dan didn't hesitate.

Go to the King Charles.

His reasoning is simple: why take on one of the world's best sprinters over a distance short of Autumn Glow's best when she could instead start a dominant favourite in a $5 million Group 1 over 1600m?

Dan believes Autumn Glow is simply better than almost every horse likely to oppose her at a mile, with the obvious exception being a potential rematch with Sheza Alibi.

If the two stars meet again, it could be one of the races of the carnival.

Dan's verdict: King Charles over The Everest for Autumn Glow.

Cox Plate — Sir Delius the horse to beat

With the Cox Plate being run at Flemington this year, Sir Delius currently sits at the top of the market.

Dan thinks that's exactly where he belongs.

Before the Winx Stakes he was prepared to lean towards Aeliana, believing there wasn't a great deal separating the pair when both were at their best.

Aeliana's disappointing return forced him to reassess.

Sir Delius has already demonstrated a level over 2000m that very few horses can reach. With Autumn Glow and Sheza Alibi unlikely to run, Dan believes the race currently looks remarkably thin behind him.

The interesting wildcard is Yellow Jersey, who has impressed in his trials and looks capable of developing into a genuine Group 1 weight-for-age horse.

But reaching Sir Delius' established level is another matter entirely.

Dan's horse to beat: Sir Delius

Golden Rose — Tronbolt

The three-year-olds remain much harder to assess.

St Gotthard, a full brother to Switzerland, sits prominently in the market and has an excellent profile, but Dan believes the current price leaves little room for error.

He is also keen to oppose Golden Slipper winner Guest House until he proves he has returned as a three-year-old.

The horse that appeals most at the current prices is Tronbolt.

His JJ Atkins performance wasn't yet at the level normally required to win a Golden Rose, but Dan believes he fits the profile of a developing Waller two-year-old capable of returning at three and taking a significant ratings jump.

Dan's early value: Tronbolt

Caulfield Guineas — Central Europe

One of Dan's more interesting plays of the entire show was Central Europe for the Caulfield Guineas.

The colt has already produced consistently solid performances over shorter distances without yet reaching the ratings normally required to win a Caulfield Guineas.

That's precisely what Dan likes about him.

Central Europe is by Frankel and Dan believes everything about his pedigree and racing style suggests he should improve significantly as the distances increase.

Rather than looking for a horse already running Caulfield Guineas figures, Dan wants one with a legitimate reason to improve several lengths by the time the race arrives.

Central Europe fits the bill.

Dan's tip: Central Europe

Coolmore Stud Stakes — Natural Fling

Dan was enormously impressed with Natural Fling's recent performance.

Her jumpout had already caught his attention because of the time she produced while appearing to do it comfortably, and she then backed it up on race day with a significant new ratings peak.

Importantly, Natural Fling has already made the improvement that the other leading three-year-olds in the market are still being priced to make.

For that reason Dan believes there should be a much bigger gap between her and the likes of Guest House and The Next Episode in the market.

Another at bigger odds worth following is Blue Door, who Dan thought was excellent in defeat at her latest run and may have simply felt the effects of having only one trial leading into it.

Dan's top pick: Natural Fling Value runner: Blue Door

Golden Eagle — Sheza Alibi

This was one of the easiest races of the entire show.

If Sheza Alibi arrives at Randwick anywhere near her best, Dan believes the opposition simply isn't in her class.

He rates her among the best horses Australia has produced in the past 10 to 20 years and believes the switch of the Golden Eagle to Randwick only strengthens her position.

The spacious Randwick circuit should allow her to use her extraordinary ability without some of the tactical complications that could have arisen around Rosehill.

Dan isn't suggesting taking a short price months in advance, but in terms of finding the winner there was no need to overcomplicate it.

Dan's horse to beat: Sheza Alibi

Moir Stakes — My Gladiola

Here's another one Dan believes the early market may have wrong.

Natural Fling is likely to be favourite, but dropping back to 1000m presents a potential challenge. She isn't particularly fast from the barriers and Dan can envisage a scenario where a wide draw and genuine 1000m speed horses leave her with an awkward task.

That brings My Gladiola right into calculations.

Dan believes she has become underrated because she hasn't won recently, despite repeatedly producing ratings that put her right around the level required to win this type of Group 1.

She has previously finished second to Tentyris in both the Coolmore and Lightning and Dan believes the bigger, more open Sandown circuit should suit her.

Dan's value play: My Gladiola

Manikato Stakes — wait

This is one race where Dan isn't interested in getting involved early.

The reason is The Everest.

By the time the Manikato arrives, horses including Ninja, Jimmysstar, Angel Capital and Natural Fling could have secured Everest slots, completely changing the make-up of the race.

Dan has respect for Jigsaw, who possesses exactly the type of profile that could win the race, but there is simply too much uncertainty around the field to have a strong betting opinion this far out.

Dan's verdict: No early bet. Wait for the field to take shape.

The Everest — Ka Ying Rising

Sometimes there isn't a clever way to find value.

If Ka Ying Rising arrives in Sydney and reproduces his Hong Kong form, Dan believes the Australian sprinters need him to underperform to beat him.

His ratings since returning to Hong Kong have been extraordinary and Dan compared the level he is producing to Black Caviar territory.

Even improvement from Australia's established sprinters is unlikely to be enough because they're already exposed horses. Autumn Glow would be a legitimate second favourite if connections choose The Everest, but Ka Ying Rising remains clearly the horse to beat.

Dan's horse to beat: Ka Ying Rising

Champions Sprint — Joliestar

Dan believes Joliestar deserves to be favourite, particularly if this is the race connections specifically target.

She holds a slight ratings edge over Tempted, who is expected to go through The Everest, and that preparation could give Joliestar another advantage when they arrive at Flemington.

More broadly, Dan believes Australia's current sprinting stocks are well below the exceptional standard we've become accustomed to.

That's why Ka Ying Rising stands so far above them — and why Dan is desperate to see a new Australian sprinting star emerge this spring.

Dan's top pick: Joliestar

Caulfield Cup — King Of The Sea the local to follow

Dan isn't particularly excited by the established local Caulfield Cup contenders.

That makes King Of The Sea interesting.

He still has a long way to go and needs to qualify, but Dan loved his return over 1600m at Randwick and believes he possesses the type of profile capable of improving rapidly as the distances increase.

He's lightly raced, into his second Australian preparation and combines a turn of foot with the strength required of a genuine staying prospect.

Dan compared his progression to the type of horse that can seemingly come from nowhere to become a Caulfield Cup contender.

Among the internationals, Wine Dark Sea also appeals. The lightly raced Australian Bloodstock import has only had 10 starts and recently won at Group 3 level overseas.

Dan's local horse to follow: King Of The Sea International to watch: Wine Dark Sea

Melbourne Cup — Defiantly

And finally, Dan's strongest long-range value play.

Defiantly at around $15 for the Melbourne Cup.

The Joseph O'Brien-trained stayer secured his Melbourne Cup place with an emphatic victory in the Prix Kergorlay and Dan believes the performance was better than the market is giving him credit for.

The form has substance, the Prix Kergorlay has an outstanding history as a Melbourne Cup guide and Defiantly is a genuine stayer who should relish a searching 3200m at Flemington.

He also possesses the ability to race forward, allowing his rider to turn the Cup into a genuine staying contest rather than relying on a sit-and-sprint.

Most importantly, his place in the Melbourne Cup is secured.

Dan believes a number of horses currently ahead of him in betting may never make the trip to Australia, while Defiantly is already locked in.

He's liked the price enough to back him and include him in doubles with the likes of Sheza Alibi in the Golden Eagle.

If the Melbourne Cup were being run in the next fortnight, Dan believes Defiantly would be closer to half his current quote.

Dan's 2026 Melbourne Cup tip: Defiantly

Dan O'Sullivan's spring horses to follow

Race	Horse
Epsom Handicap	Attica
King Charles III Stakes	Autumn Glow
Cox Plate	Sir Delius
Golden Rose	Tronbolt
Caulfield Guineas	Central Europe
Coolmore Stud Stakes	Natural Fling
Golden Eagle	Sheza Alibi
Moir Stakes	My Gladiola
The Everest	Ka Ying Rising
Champions Sprint	Joliestar
Caulfield Cup	King Of The Sea / Wine Dark Sea
Melbourne Cup	Defiantly

There will be plenty that changes between now and the biggest days of the carnival, but Dan's overall assessment is that the strength of the spring currently lies with the horses racing from a mile and beyond.

And with Autumn Glow, Sheza Alibi and Sir Delius leading that group — plus a host of emerging three-year-olds and internationals beginning to appear — there is plenty to look forward to.

The good horses are back.

Spring is here.