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Saturday Bound: Warwoven and Blind Raise collide in the Guineas

Early markets for the Caulfield Cup Carnival's three Group 1s, led by Sheza Alibi v Birdman, plus the $2 million Hill Stakes at Rosehill.

News Desk · Editorial
4d ago · 5 min read
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Each Monday, Saturday Bound takes an early look at the weekend nominations, the likely fields and the first markets as the major players decide where they'll line up.

The Caulfield Cup Carnival kicks off on Saturday with three Group 1s, headed by a fascinating clash between Sheza Alibi and Birdman in the Might And Power. The Caulfield Guineas brings together the dominant Golden Rose winner Warwoven and Melbourne's leading colt Blind Raise, while Rosehill hosts another strong card headed by the $2 million Hill Stakes.

Caulfield

G1 Might and Power Stakes (2000m) — WFA

Sheza Alibi ($1.50) faces a completely different challenge as she steps to 2000m for the first time following her dominant Makybe Diva Stakes win.

The distance experiment is deliberate. Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman want to learn whether she can become a genuine 2000m horse in future campaigns before she drops sharply back to 1500m for her main spring target, the $10 million Golden Eagle.

Birdman ($3.00) is the obvious danger after beating subsequent Turnbull winner Cosmic Crusader in the Underwood. His destination is very different — the Cox Plate is his grand final, making Saturday his final major test before Moonee Valley. Treasurethe Moment ($11.00) is the next horse in the market.

G1 Caulfield Guineas (1600m) — 3YOs

This has developed into one of the clashes of the spring.

Warwoven ($2.60) arrives in Melbourne after destroying a strong Golden Rose field by more than three lengths. Bjorn Baker immediately confirmed the Caulfield Guineas as his next target and hasn't completely ruled out backing him up two weeks later in the Cox Plate.

Waiting for him is Blind Raise ($3.50), who has won four of five and stamped himself as Melbourne's leading Guineas contender with a dominant victory in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude. Tron Bolt ($7.00) is the only other runner currently in single figures.

G1 Toorak Handicap (1600m)

The Toorak looks much more open, with Regal Award ($5.00) heading the market ahead of Changing Colours ($7.00) and Sepals ($7.00).

Changing Colours has won four straight at Caulfield and earned her shot at a Group 1 with victory in the Stocks Stakes. Blake Shinn immediately raised the Toorak as the logical next step.

There is still some uncertainty around Sepals, with connections also considering Sydney, while Evaporate ($9.00) is the next horse in the market.

G2 Herbert Power Stakes (2400m)

The Herbert Power brings the Cups horses to the fore, with Shockletz ($3.00) heading the market from Zakouma ($5.00) and Darkbonee ($7.00).

Shockletz already has her Melbourne Cup position secured after winning the Archer Stakes over 2500m, while Zakouma is also ballot-exempt courtesy of his Andrew Ramsden victory. For both, Saturday is now about building towards Flemington rather than scrambling to qualify.

Pinhole ($9.00) is next in betting as the staying picture continues to take shape.

G2 Schillaci Stakes (1100m)

Dual Group 1 winner Jigsaw ($4.00) makes his long-awaited return after connections deliberately bypassed the Manikato to start his campaign here.

Trainer Cindy Alderson preferred to give him the extra fortnight, making Saturday the starting point for his spring rather than another grand final.

Bridal Waltz ($6.00) and Streisand ($6.00) are next in the market, ahead of Rey Magnerio ($7.00) in a strong sprint.

G3 Northwood Plume Stakes (1200m) — Mares

Bridal Waltz ($4.00) and Point Barrow ($4.00) share favouritism in the mares' sprint, although Bridal Waltz is also prominent in the Schillaci market and her final destination remains to be seen.

Inkaruna ($9.00) is next, with Eagle Express ($11.00) and Naifah ($11.00) also prominent.

For the better mares, this is an important stepping stone towards the stronger sprinting and mares' races through the remainder of the Melbourne spring.

Rosehill

G2 Hill Stakes (1900m) — WFA

Lindermann ($2.00) dominates the early market as he returns to Sydney and stretches back towards his preferred middle-distance range.

His Melbourne campaign didn't go to plan, with Blake Shinn reporting after the Underwood that Lindermann wasn't comfortable racing anticlockwise. The stable subsequently considered returning him to Sydney, and the 1900m Hill Stakes looks a much more familiar assignment.

There is a big gap to Attrition, Eliyass, Idle Flyer and Zambardo at $8.00, with the $2 million race an important spring middle-distance test.

G3 Alan Brown Stakes (1400m)

The $1.5 million Alan Brown has attracted a strong group, with Gringotts ($4.50) favourite ahead of Headley Grange ($6.00) and Lady Shenandoah ($6.00).

Gringotts has a particularly strong connection with this race, having finished second in it before going on to win the Big Dance in 2024, then again finishing runner-up last year before successfully defending his Big Dance crown.

Headley Grange is another proven horse at this level and won the Alan Brown last year, while Sepals ($8.00) is also prominent but holds a Toorak nomination at Caulfield.

The Tapp-Craig (1400m) — 3YOs

The Tapp-Craig gives the three-year-olds outside the Caulfield Guineas another valuable spring option, with Central Europe ($4.50) and Revengeance ($4.50) sharing favouritism.

Central Europe comes back from the Golden Rose, where he worked early before battling on, while Plagiarism ($6.00) also comes through that race after finishing a respectable seventh behind Warwoven.

Steel Will ($6.00) is the other horse prominent in a race that could provide a different pathway through the second half of the spring for this group.

G2 Roman Consul Stakes (1200m) — 3YOs

The Roman Consul has traditionally been an important Coolmore Stud Stakes lead-up and this year's race brings together two of the more interesting three-year-old sprinters.

Paradoxium ($2.80) narrowly heads Satono Glow ($3.00). Satono Glow produced a high-class performance winning the Cap D'Antibes at Flemington first-up, putting the Coolmore firmly on the radar.

Paradoxium is already among the higher-rated three-year-olds of his generation and the pair have a clear gap on Omolong and The Machine Gun at $8.00.

G3 The Nivison (1200m) — Mares

The mares finish off our look at Rosehill, with Gerringong ($4.50) and Tuileries ($4.50) sharing favouritism ahead of Gangsta Granny ($5.00).

Gangsta Granny already knows how to win this race, having taken last year's Nivison. She has since developed into a consistent stakes performer and was runner-up in the Sheraco earlier this spring before finishing fifth in the Golden Pendant.

Arabian Rose ($8.00) is next in the market, with the Nivison another chance for the mares to establish themselves before the later spring sprinting features.

News Desk

Editorial at The Daily Punt, covering Australian racing and sport with an eye for where the value sits.

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