Both home sides are cramped in the head-to-head, so there's nothing for us there — the value on this card lives in the lines, totals and player markets. The desk has worked down every fixture and landed on four singles plus a multi.
Fremantle v Geelong — Friday, Optus Stadium
Fremantle are out to avoid a straight-sets exit as minor premiers after failing to rise to the occasion in a qualifying-final loss to Hawthorn. Geelong, by contrast, arrive battle-hardened — captain Patrick Dangerfield led from the front with five goals against Carlton and pulled up well, alongside Jeremy Cameron and Max Holmes. The one meeting between these sides at Optus this year was a grind: Fremantle got home by nine points after trailing at half time.
That's the read that matters. This shapes as another tight, contested night at a ground where Freo suffocate the game, and we don't think 13-plus points of margin is on. We're taking Geelong to stay within the line, and Dangerfield to rack up disposals as Geelong's dangerous forward — he had 20 touches and five goals playing exclusively forward last week.
Brisbane v Adelaide — Saturday, the Gabba
Brisbane take the long route again after a shock qualifying-final loss to Sydney, and there's genuine reason to think the response is real: the two-time reigning premiers have proven they can have an off day and then immediately respond, including when beaten at the same stage last year. Adelaide come in warm — Josh Rachele kicked three to cap a fantastic night in the win over the Western Bulldogs.
We're not backing the Crows to knock Brisbane off at the Gabba, but the Lions' short handicap is where a bet lives, and Adelaide have the class up forward to keep the scoreboard ticking. That points us at the total and at an Adelaide half-forward the market has drifted.
A tight Optus grind where Freo choke the game — the Cats stay well within this margin.
Fresh off five goals and pulled up well, dangerous forward for the Cats with 20 touches last week.
Two attacking sides and a Brisbane response likely means goals flow at the Gabba.
High half-forward who works up the ground for a Crows side that will need possession to stay in it.
That gives us two prices worth having — Dangerfield's disposals and Neal-Bullen's — in different games, which is exactly the shape we want.
For the multi we've gone the risk-leg way: two legs we're solid on, plus one that needs a bit of luck. The line and the Gabba total are the confident pair; the risk leg is Wayne Milera to hit the scoreboard — he's a dashing half-back who rarely goes forward, so this needs plenty of luck.
The confident leg — a tight one at Optus keeps the Cats within range.
The second confident leg — expect a high-scoring Gabba shootout.
The risk leg — he's a dashing half-back who rarely goes forward, so this needs plenty of luck.
- → Both hosts are too short head-to-head, so we've gone to the lines, totals and player markets for value.
- → The Cats have the finals experience and the class to make Friday night a genuine contest at Optus.
- → Sudden death for all four — one bad quarter ends a season.
Only ever bet what you can afford to lose, and enjoy the footy.
Editorial at The Daily Punt, covering Australian racing and sport with an eye for where the value sits.
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