Two rounds out from the finals, most of Round 26 reads as one-way traffic, so the head-to-head board is thin on value. Our judges have gone hunting through the scorer and player markets, where the prices actually reward a read.
Broncos v Storm — Thursday, Suncorp
Melbourne get Jahrome Hughes back at halfback after three weeks out, and Tyran Wishart moves to the centres, taking over from Jack Howarth, who's been stood down for the year for shoulder surgery. Brisbane are playing for pride only — mathematically out of the finals — but they arrive off a comeback win in Canberra and have troubled Melbourne in recent meetings. With the Broncos at home and desperate to finish with a scalp, we're happy to take them on the handicap; a Storm side reshuffling its spine on a Thursday interstate trip is beatable inside a few points.
Roosters v Dolphins — Saturday, Allianz Stadium
The Roosters were stunned by the Tigers last week and will be filthy about it, with skipper James Tedesco named to return from the ankle injury that sidelined him for three games. But the Dolphins are the form side, coming off a 34-16 win over Parramatta with Herbie Farnworth and Jamayne Isaako both scoring doubles. This is line-ball on the whole, and with the Dolphins carrying genuine attacking spark through their outside backs, we think the start is the play rather than picking a winner.
The best bets
Where the round is lopsided, the value sits in players and lines, not another short favourite.
Broncos are home, motivated and fresh off a win against a Storm side rejigging its spine — the start gives us the cushion.
The form side with dangerous outside backs against a Roosters unit still steadying after last week's boilover — the start is generous.
The Tigers' edge back-rower gets a run against a Cowboys defence that blows hot and cold, and at this price he's well worth the swing.
Capewell carries hard off the Warriors' edge — a live scorer at a real number.
Back in the Titans' back row after concussion, he's a genuine goal-line threat at home and the price is overs for a starting edge forward.
Multi of the week
We've built the risk-leg shape — two legs we're confident in plus one that needs things to fall our way. The Warriors are the round's most secure result at home with Te Maire Martin back steering them against a Knights side missing suspended pair Dom Young and Tyson Frizell, and the Sharks have far more to play for than an out-of-finals Eels outfit. The risk leg is Jahream Bula to score for the Tigers — their fullback should get plenty of touches against a Cowboys defence that blows hot and cold at Townsville, and at his price he's worth the ride.
Martin back at the controls and a settled home side against a Knights outfit down two suspended forwards.
The Sharks are still chasing a top-four spot with the stronger pack and more strike out wide.
The risk leg — the Tigers' busy fullback who'll get his chances against a scrambling Cowboys defence.
- → The round is full of short favourites, so our value is in the line and scorer markets rather than the head-to-head.
- → Fainu, Capewell and Patston are all live scorers at $4.00 or longer in games their sides should control.
- → The multi pairs two confident lines with a Tigers tryscorer as the deliberate risk leg.
Bet within your means, and only ever with money you can afford to lose.
Editorial at The Daily Punt, covering Australian racing and sport with an eye for where the value sits.
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