Round 24 is stacked with lopsided head-to-heads, so the head-to-head market is mostly a trap — the money is in the scorer books and the two games that are actually a contest. We've gone light and gone for value.
Panthers v Roosters — Thursday night, the round opener
The top-two clash kicks the round off, and Penrith come off a beating in Auckland while the Roosters got over the top of the Bulldogs late. Last week the Panthers were swamped by the Warriors before falling short in a second-half revival, the Roosters looked down and out against the Bulldogs before finishing over the top for a vital win, and the Roosters are travelling very well. With James Tedesco back at fullback and this pair rarely blowing out, the +5.5 to the Roosters is the play we'd rather have than a cramped winner's price.
Tigers v Dragons — the one line-ball game
This is the closest contest on the card, two sides separated by a whisker in the market. Exciting centre Solomone Saukuru makes his NRL debut for the Tigers after a fine NSW Cup season as the competition's leading tryscorer. The Dragons went 24-16 over Cronulla last week, so in a genuine coin-flip we side with the visitors on the line where the small edge is being paid.
Where the value board sits
Two longer plays we can actually argue. In Newcastle's home game against a beaten-up Titans, Francis Manuleleua starts in the second row — a back-rower crashing over at that price is worth a swing. And at Suncorp, the Warriors' Kurt Capewell is the kind of edge-forward option who gets over in a tight Broncos–Warriors arm-wrestle at a price that repays one try.
Line-ball game — we take the points with the visitors.
Two elite sides who rarely blow apart, Tedesco back at fullback — the start is the smarter side of a tight game.
Back-rower in a home side against a depleted Titans — real overs for a forward who gets to the line.
Edge forward who takes the ball to the line in a tight Suncorp grind — one try repays the price.
Multi of the week
A risk-leg multi: two lines we're confident in plus one scorer that needs things to fall our way. The risk leg is Cody Walker to score anytime for Souths — he's their chief playmaker who lurks around the line, and in a tight derby against the Bulldogs he only needs one dummy-half dart to pay. The two line legs are the ones we back most.
The confident anchor — a genuine coin-flip and we've taken the points.
Big start against a Sharks side missing Fonua-Blake through suspension — Canberra keep it inside the number.
The risk leg — Souths' main playmaker with a nose for the line in a tight derby.
- → Skip the short favourites — the value this round is in the scorer books and the two close games.
- → Manly are missing regulars and Souths lose Ashton Ward for the season, so read the team news before you back a line.
Bet within your means, and enjoy the footy.
Editorial at The Daily Punt, covering Australian racing and sport with an eye for where the value sits.
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