The top 10 is locked, so this final round splits neatly into teams who need something and teams who don't. Our card leans into that gap.
Collingwood v Brisbane, Fri MCG
Collingwood are into the wildcard round no matter what, and Craig McRae has openly flagged managing his stars — the Daicos brothers and Darcy Cameron are all in the frame to be rested or wrapped in cotton wool. Brisbane tightened its grip on a top-four spot with a win over Gold Coast and needs to beat the Magpies to lock in a double chance. A full-strength, motivated Lions outfit against a Pies side with nothing on the line and bodies out is the shape of a comfortable margin, so we're taking Brisbane to cover.
Essendon v Port Adelaide, Sun Marvel
Port arrive in poor shape — a long losing run, a threadbare interstate record and defensive holes that have seen them leak heavily in recent weeks. Essendon are at the bottom but at home with pride on the line and a chance to jump Richmond, and the reasons to be with them here are the venue and Port's travel woes rather than any grand form line.
The rest of the round
Adelaide host GWS needing the win to keep top-six hopes alive, but the Giants are a dangerous, well-drilled side with genuine midfield talent and at their price they're the play in a game the Crows can't afford to switch off in. And on Thursday night, Ben King is Gold Coast's clear number-one target inside 50 — first-goal money on the man the Suns kick to first is worth a small interest.
Port's road record and defensive injuries make the Bombers a live chance at home.
A motivated Lions chasing a double chance against a Pies side likely to rest stars.
The Giants have the class to spoil Adelaide's must-win night.
Gold Coast's first option inside 50 at a genuine first-goal price.
For the multi we've gone the risk-leg route: Essendon at home as the anchor, then two legs that need things to go our way.
- Essendon to win — the value single above, backed in at home against a fading Port.
- GWS to beat Adelaide — the price play. The Giants have the class to spoil a must-win night for the Crows.
- Brisbane -26.5 — covering a margin that size relies on Collingwood resting up, but with the Pies' season effectively parked and the Lions needing the four points, it's a risk we're happy to take.
The Giants have the class to spoil Adelaide's must-win night.
The risk leg — needs a rested Pies side, and the Lions have every reason to pile it on.
- → The round's value sits in the desperation gap — sides needing the win against sides already booked into September.
- → Brisbane covering the line is our strongest read, built on Collingwood having nothing to play for.
- → The scorer play on King is where the longer price is worth a swing.
18+. Bet within your means.
Editorial at The Daily Punt, covering Australian racing and sport with an eye for where the value sits.
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