The round in brief
Two rounds to go and the finals maths is doing the talking, but a slate this lopsided means the head-to-heads are mostly priced out. The desk has gone looking down the card — the lines, the multis and the scorer markets — for the bets actually worth having.
Fremantle v Adelaide — the one live contest
Freo host Adelaide chasing the minor premiership, but they were run down by Melbourne last week and rested a key defender in the process. A full-strength Adelaide with Darcy Fogarty back from suspension and Lachlan McAndrew and James Borlase both likely returning gives them enough depth to make this the round's one genuine contest — the Crows have taken four wins from their last five and travel with real September stakes. At the price on offer, the desk is happy to be with the visitors here rather than laying a big Freo line.
North Melbourne v Geelong
Geelong are the better side, but the Roos beat the Bulldogs last week and Marvel suits their running game. That backdrop makes Charlie Spargo an appealing play — a busy small who racks up touches, and at this number there's real value in his ball-winning.
Port Adelaide v Melbourne
Melbourne travel needing the four points, but the desk isn't sure they win by four goals. A handicap that big is a lot to ask of a Melbourne outfit whose last two wins have been narrow — they got past Fremantle by four and Gold Coast by nine. Give Port a generous start at Adelaide Oval and that's the bet.
The bets
Full-strength Crows travelling with live top-six stakes against a Freo side beaten last week
Busy small who racks up touches at Marvel, and the number is generous
Melbourne's last two wins were narrow; a big line is a lot to ask on the road
Multi of the week
The desk likes two live-underdog reads the market has priced generously: Adelaide to win at Optus and Port with the start at Adelaide Oval. For a third leg, take Matt Rowell as an anytime goalscorer against Brisbane — he's the Suns' contested-ball leader, but he's no lock to hit the scoreboard, and that's the leg that has to land.
Live top-six stakes and a full-strength side against a beaten Freo
A big line to ask of a Demons side winning narrowly of late
Suns' contested-ball leader
- → The lopsided fixtures mean the value sits in the lines, totals and scorer markets, not the winners.
- → Adelaide and Port both shape as live underdogs the market has priced generously.
- → The multi is a risk-leg play — Rowell as an anytime goalscorer is the leg that needs to fall our way.
Bet within your means, and only ever with money you can afford to lose. 18+.
Editorial at The Daily Punt, covering Australian racing and sport with an eye for where the value sits.
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