NRL Round 22 Tips: Roosters Roll On, Bulldogs Aiming to Sting a Wounded Storm

The bets

For the multi punters, the two short-priced favourites connect neatly: the Dolphins over a Dragons side that's checked out plus our anytime try scorer Isaako looks a safe bet, and the Sharks over Souths at Shark Stadium.

Round 22 lands with the finals picture tightening and a clear split between the sides building towards September and the ones already looking to 2027. The race to the NRL finals is heating up with just six rounds remaining, and every result from here could have a huge impact on the top eight. That gap between motivated and mailing-it-in is where the value sits this week, so the Desk has leaned into form, team news and a couple of lopsided matchups rather than forcing a bet in every game.

Cowboys v Roosters — Thursday, Townsville

This is the headline act and the toughest read on the card. The Roosters arrive on a genuine roll — Sydney have climbed into second position after winning five consecutive matches, with victories over Cronulla, Brisbane, Parramatta, Melbourne and Newcastle.

The Cowboys aren't rolling over, mind. They have won three of their last four games and produced a committed defensive performance to beat Brisbane 18-10 last week. But North Queensland come into this reshuffled, missing Reed Mahoney and Griffin Neame from last week's outfit, while the Roosters name a strong, settled spine with Tedesco, Cherry-Evans and Walker.

The Desk's read: Sydney's defensive ceiling travels, and their five-week form line is the best in the competition. We're with the Roosters on the line here — with a caveat that Townsville is never a soft place to cover.

Storm v Bulldogs — Friday, AAMI Park

The season has flipped on these two. The Bulldogs have rediscovered their best football at the right time, winning five of their last six matches to move within reach of the top eight. Their recent improvement has been built around disciplined possession, strong yardage and a defence that has conceded only six points across the past two rounds.

Melbourne, by contrast, are in genuine trouble. The Storm's season is effectively over after last week's 28-26 loss to South Sydney left their finals hopes hanging by a thread — they have lost three of their last four games and are now dealing with another major injury after Harry Grant suffered a hamstring issue against the Rabbitohs. Losing your Test hooker on top of that form is a serious hit to a side already leaking late.

The history says keep it tight rather than lopsided. We're backing the Dogs — win, not blowout.

The rest of the card

Two more games look genuinely one-sided on paper. The Dragons appear to have checked out of the season after slumping to a 38-18 loss against the Titans last weekend, their 16th defeat from 18 matches. The Dolphins are the opposite story — they are looking like a strong finals contender heading into the final rounds of the season.

Souths, meanwhile, front a Cronulla side flying at home. On the model numbers the Sharks are given an 82% chance of defeating the Rabbitohs at Shark Stadium. That one's short — better used as a multi anchor than a standalone.

Prices and links get finalised by our editor before kickoff, so check the live market before you commit. Six rounds to go and plenty riding on every result — bet within your means and enjoy the footy.