Finals footy is here, and week one splits neatly into two survival games and two second-chance qualifiers. The Desk has read every market on the card, and the value sits in the scorer and handicap columns rather than a row of cramped head-to-heads.
Rabbitohs v Newcastle — Allianz Stadium, Friday
An elimination final separated by almost nothing on the season. Newcastle get Dominic Young, Phoenix Crossland and Tyson Frizell back, but lose the forward duo of Jacob Saifiti to suspension and Trey Mooney to a season-ending shoulder. That is a real hole through the middle against a Souths pack that carries hard, and with Cody Walker and Jayden Sullivan steering a settled spine, we lean the Rabbitohs to control the game. The value, though, is on the Souths side of the scorer market: Campbell Graham to bag a double is a genuine price given how much traffic his edge sees in tight finals footy.
Warriors v Dolphins — Saturday, Go Media Stadium (Mt Smart), Auckland
The pick of the round. Jackson Ford returns for the Warriors, the early Dally M favourite playing his first game since Round 16. The Dolphins throw the ball around, but on the bigger occasion we think a settled Warriors forward pack with Ford back on the bench grinds this out. Te Maire Martin at his price to score anytime is the play we like — he's on the ball at the line all night for a side we expect to score plenty.
The elimination and qualifier down the stretch
Cronulla host North Queensland with five-eighth Braydon Trindall back from injury to partner Nicho Hynes in the halves. The Cowboys travel with a reshaped pack and Cronulla's spine is the difference, so our read is a Sharks win with a bit to spare — the handicap is where we want them. Penrith close the weekend against the Roosters as minor premiers, and while the Roosters bring back their big names after resting them, with Tedesco, Nawaqanitawase, Cherry-Evans and Robson all named to start, we still make Penrith clearly the stronger side. There's no value backing them at head-to-head prices this short, so we go to the players.
Our best bets
His edge sees heavy traffic in a tight eliminator and this is a fair price for a double.
On the ball at the line all night for a side we expect to post points — big price for a spine man.
Trindall back alongside Hynes gives the Sharks the spine to win this by a margin.
An edge forward who takes the ball to the line for a side we expect to dominate field position — real value at this price.
That card clears our floor with three plays at $4.00 or longer, and it backs the read rather than the obvious favourites.
The multi
The Warriors on the line at home and Cronulla on the line are our anchors, backed by an edge forward at Penrith we expect to run in points.
Ford back on the bench in a settled pack should see the Warriors win this with a bit to spare at home.
The spine edge should tell against a reshuffled Cowboys outfit.
An edge forward who takes the ball to the line for a side we expect to dominate field position — real value at this price.
Finals margins are thin, so stake to what you're comfortable losing. 18+, and bet within your means.
Editorial at The Daily Punt, covering Australian racing and sport with an eye for where the value sits.
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