Week 4 gives Australian NFL fans a monster Monday of action, starting with the Colts and Commanders from London before six more games roll through Monday morning. Then on Tuesday, Atlanta and New Orleans round out our televised slate.
Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders
12:30 am AEDT, Monday 5 October | TV: ESPN, Kayo, Disney+, NFL Game Pass | See the market
The Colts arrive in London as favourites, but this looks anything but straightforward. Indianapolis escaped with a 19-17 win over Houston last week despite Daniel Jones turning the ball over three times, while Washington produced one of the upsets of Week 3 by knocking off Seattle.
The key battle is Jonathan Taylor against a Washington defence that ranks among the NFL's best against the run. Taylor remains the centrepiece of the Colts offence, but he is yet to crack 100 rushing yards in a game this season. Washington has also protected the football extremely well, while the Colts defence has struggled for much of the opening month. With the Commanders coming off their best performance of the season, the market might be giving Indianapolis a little too much respect.
Washington's run defence matches up well against Taylor and the Commanders have been far better at protecting the football. Getting more than a field goal appeals.
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
4:00 am AEDT, Monday 5 October | TV: 7mate, 7plus Sport, NFL Game Pass | See the market
New England couldn't have asked for a much tougher spot after being belted 35-6 by Jacksonville. The Patriots have struggled badly to generate points and now run into an undefeated Buffalo team at home.
The Bills weren't at their best against the Chargers and turned the football over five times, yet still found a way to win 24-16. That's probably the biggest difference between these teams right now: Buffalo can play poorly and still manufacture a victory.
New England needs a massive turnaround offensively to threaten here. Buffalo has Josh Allen, a far more dangerous offence and home-field advantage, while the Patriots have given us very little evidence through three weeks that they can keep pace if this turns into a scoring contest.
The Patriots are coming off a 29-point loss and Buffalo still won last week despite five turnovers. A cleaner Bills performance should make them difficult to stay with.
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
4:00 am AEDT, Monday 5 October | TV: ESPN, Kayo, Disney+, NFL Game Pass | See the market
This might be the hardest game of the round to trust.
The Rams blew a 16-0 halftime lead against Denver last week, while Philadelphia was thumped 27-7 by Chicago. So both teams arrive needing a response.
Los Angeles is favourite on the road, but there are reasons to be cautious. Sean McVay has struggled badly against Philadelphia in recent meetings and the Eagles are getting more than a field goal at home. The Rams certainly have the weapons to win it, particularly with Puka Nacua back in the mix, but their inconsistency through three weeks makes laying points uncomfortable.
Philadelphia's offence has its own questions, which is why this isn't a strong outright play. But in what shapes as a close game, the points with the home side look more attractive.
The Rams deserve favouritism, but giving the Eagles more than a field goal in Philadelphia looks a much tougher proposition.
Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings
7:05 am AEDT, Monday 5 October | TV: ESPN, Kayo, Disney+, NFL Game Pass | See the market
This is the biggest mismatch among the televised games.
Miami is 0-3, hasn't scored more than 13 points in a game and has now lost De'Von Achane for the season. That's a terrible combination heading to Minnesota to face one of the NFL's most aggressive defences.
The Vikings are allowing only 13.7 points per game and Brian Flores has been blitzing at an extraordinary rate. That spells trouble for Malik Willis, who has struggled when pressured.
Minnesota's own offence hasn't exactly been flying, but it shouldn't need to be spectacular. Miami ranks near the bottom of the league defensively and has struggled to finish drives offensively. The 10.5-point handicap is enormous, but there is a reason for it.
Double-digit NFL lines always deserve respect, but everything about the match-up points Minnesota's way.
Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers
7:25 am AEDT, Monday 5 October | TV: 7mate, 7plus Sport, NFL Game Pass | See the market
Denver is 2-1 and clearly capable, but there is one glaring problem: the Broncos keep giving their opponents a head start.
They've been outscored 40-10 across the first halves of their opening three games. They managed to recover against Jacksonville and the Rams, but travelling to face an undefeated San Francisco team is a very different proposition.
Brock Purdy has been playing excellent football despite injuries around him and San Francisco gets another game at Levi's Stadium. The interesting part is the price: the market only asks the 49ers to cover 2.5 points. Denver's ability to fight back makes a blowout difficult to predict, but another sluggish opening could leave them chasing one of the league's best teams.
This is essentially asking the 49ers to win by a field goal at home. Denver's repeated slow starts make that appealing.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks
7:25 am AEDT, Monday 5 October | TV: ESPN, Kayo, Disney+, NFL Game Pass | See the market
Seattle's shock loss to Washington last week shouldn't erase what this team has done over the past year. The Seahawks have lost just twice across the previous 365 days and now return home looking to respond.
The Chargers' problems are much harder to ignore. They're 0-3 and managed only 16 points against Buffalo despite the Bills gifting them five turnovers. Remarkably, that was Los Angeles' highest score of the season.
The defence hasn't been able to rescue them either, slipping well below the standards it set over the previous two seasons. Seattle should win, but the market has now pushed the handicap beyond a touchdown. That changes the betting equation — Seattle -7 looked attractive, but -7.5 asks considerably more.
The price isn't exciting on its own, but Seattle looks the clearly stronger side and could be useful for multis.
No Bet on Seattle -7.5 at $2.00. The Seahawks can absolutely cover, but once the market crosses the key number of seven, the value isn't nearly as attractive.
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers
11:20 am AEDT, Monday 5 October | TV: ESPN, Kayo, Disney+, NFL Game Pass | See the market
If you're looking for one of the clearest match-up advantages of the televised slate, it might be Detroit's rushing attack against Carolina.
The Lions have scored exactly 31 points in each of their opening three games and now face a Panthers defence conceding a league-worst 5.7 yards per carry. That is a frightening statistic when Jahmyr Gibbs is coming to town.
Carolina also has problems behind that front, with starting corners Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson on injured reserve. That leaves a depleted secondary dealing with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Detroit's collection of weapons.
Detroit's own defence remains vulnerable, so Carolina should create some offence. But it's difficult to see the Panthers consistently stopping the Lions.
Carolina's defensive weaknesses line up almost perfectly with Detroit's offensive strengths.
The price is short, but Carolina's league-worst 5.7 yards allowed per carry makes Gibbs the obvious player match-up of the game.
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
11:15 am AEDT, Tuesday 6 October | TV: ESPN, Kayo, Disney+, NFL Game Pass | See the market
This is the game where the market and the wider analysis disagree most — and that makes it fascinating.
New Orleans is favourite at home and Tyler Shough has been excellent, entering Week 4 with 917 passing yards and eight touchdowns. The Saints could also easily have a better record after turning the ball over on all four fourth-quarter possessions against Las Vegas.
But Atlanta looked transformed with Michael Penix Jr. back under centre against Green Bay, while Bijan Robinson remains the weapon around which this offence can be built. The Falcons defence has also performed well despite injuries.
There isn't much between them, which makes taking a short price about New Orleans difficult. This looks more like a genuine toss-up than the market suggests.
The Saints deserve respect at home, but Atlanta's improvement with Penix and its defensive performance make this interesting in what looks a very even contest.
Editorial at The Daily Punt, covering Australian racing and sport with an eye for where the value sits.
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