Another competitive nine-race card at Happy Valley, but there are several races where the form and set-up align strongly. Dazzling Fit gets the nod as Best Bet, while Prestige Always looks beautifully placed to chase a hat-trick in the finale.
Race 1 — Bedford Handicap
1800m · Class 5
Can't Go Wong drops into Class 5 and gets a much better set-up from barrier two. He was narrowly beaten twice late last season, should improve from his first-up run and gets Zac Purton aboard. Kingly Demeanor looks the main threat if allowed to control the race.
BetBunkerThe class drop, inside draw, Purton booking and strong late-season form give him an excellent opportunity.
Race 2 — Cheung Fat Handicap
1200m · Class 4
Loving Vibes has repeatedly been disadvantaged by wide barriers and finally draws the inside gate. He worked hard on speed first-up yet still finished fourth, and this should be a considerably softer run. World Hero can improve sharply after being caught wide at Sha Tin.
BetBunkerBarrier one transforms the map for a horse already knocking on the door at this track and distance.
Race 3 — Fat Tseung Handicap
1650m · Class 4
Sunday's Serenade, Decision Link and Luck Is Back all have legitimate claims and the strongest opinions are divided. Decision Link gets an excellent draw and should be approaching peak fitness, while Sunday's Serenade continues to race well without winning.
No bet
Race 4 — Fat Tseung Handicap
1650m · Class 4
Sky Deep had excuses first-up when held up at a crucial stage before finding trouble again in the straight. He should improve from that run, draws barrier one and gets blinkers for the first time. Precision Hope is the danger after trialling strongly in the headgear.
BetBunkerThere was hidden merit in the first-up run and the inside draw plus blinkers give him the opportunity to turn that improvement into a win.
Race 5 — Chinese General Chamber of Commerce Cup
1000m · Class 4
Georgian Sigma brings rock-solid form, but Superb King may have more upside than his 18-start maiden record suggests. He blew the start and was crowded last time yet still charged into third after being forced to race completely differently to his normal pattern. Zac Purton now takes over.
BetBunkerHis latest run was much better than it looks on paper and a clean beginning with Purton aboard could finally produce the breakthrough.
Race 6 — Cheung Fat Handicap
1200m · Class 4
Grit Spirit produced easily his best Hong Kong performance when third first-up despite covering ground and encountering traffic in the straight. He looks to have returned a much better horse after his first local preparation. No Other Choice is the fascinating danger after demolishing a Class 5 field by almost five lengths.
BetBunkerThere was plenty of hidden merit in his first-up third and he still has significant upside at this level.
The fascinating danger after demolishing a Class 5 field by almost five lengths.
Race 7 — Yip Fat Handicap
1200m · Class 3
Target Audience looks a progressive sprinter when everything goes right and was desperately unlucky when narrowly beaten over this course and distance before the break. He has previously won fresh and arrives off an excellent trial. Daryl Flash is knocking on the door and looks the main danger.
BetBunkerStrong course-and-distance form, an excellent fresh record and an encouraging trial give him a compelling first-up profile.
Race 8 — Hing Fat Handicap
1650m · Class 3
Dazzling Fit gets his opportunity to reverse the result with Pope Cody after finishing three-quarters of a length behind him first-up. He was bottled up inside at a crucial stage that night and now meets Pope Cody 6lb better at the weights. He should also improve considerably with that first run in six months under his belt.
BetBunkerA 6lb turnaround, added fitness and the potential for a cleaner passage make a compelling case for reversing the first-up result.
Race 9 — Yip Fat Handicap
1200m · Class 3
Prestige Always is chasing three straight and gets another ideal Happy Valley set-up from barrier three. The apprentice claim helps offset his rise in the weights and he should enjoy a perfect stalking position. The Heir loves the Valley and should be charging late from the inside draw.
BetBunkerHe is thriving at 1200m, maps beautifully and the claim gives him every opportunity to continue his winning sequence.
Best bets
Best bet: R8 No.1 Dazzling Fit — The first-up run was better than the bare result and the 6lb swing against Pope Cody is significant. Fitter second-up with Purton aboard, he gets his chance to turn the tables.
Next best: R9 No.6 Prestige Always — Chasing a hat-trick and gets another terrific map from barrier three. The claim is valuable and he has clearly found his right track, trip and rating range.
Value: R5 No.4 Superb King — Forget the maiden record. He was excellent after blowing the start last time and now gets Zac Purton. A clean getaway could make him very difficult to beat.
Editorial at The Daily Punt, covering Australian racing and sport with an eye for where the value sits.
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