The inaugural AFL Wildcard Round is two knockout finals at the MCG — the Western Bulldogs host Collingwood on Friday, August 28 from 7.40pm AEST, and Melbourne host Carlton on Saturday, August 29 from 7.35pm AEST. Lose and your season's over, so both games should be played at full tilt.
Western Bulldogs v Collingwood — Friday
Neither side sailed in. The Bulldogs and Collingwood have both been unconvincing as they've stumbled into the finals, with each winning only one match over the past four weeks. But the Dogs beat Melbourne last start, and the case for them is what they do at the source: our judges rate them the better contested-ball and clearance side, and in a one-game final that's where the four points get decided.
The Pies come in the other way. Collingwood conceded 159 points in a 63-point loss to Brisbane at the MCG last start, and their back half is under-strength — Scott Pendlebury and Brayden Maynard are among those sidelined. An undermanned defence against a strong-clearance opponent is the read we're leaning on.
Fitness cuts both ways: Aaron Naughton is in doubt after a lateral ligament injury to his ankle, and ruck Tim English is no certainty to return after missing the past two matches with a knee injury. That thins the Dogs' tall stocks, which is why we're on the Bulldogs at a modest line rather than a big one.
Melbourne v Carlton — Saturday
Carlton are the form horse — they beat ladder leaders Fremantle in round 24 and have hit red-hot form under Josh Fraser. But Melbourne on their own deck is a genuine play. The Demons have been hard to beat at the venue this season; in a final that shapes as a stoppage arm-wrestle, we want the side that wins its own centre bounce.
That style contrast is also where a value angle lives. Melbourne's quick, clearance-driven game can get them out to an early lead, while Carlton have the class and momentum to run over the top late — which is exactly the shape a half-time/full-time play is built for.
The bets
Nothing here is a lay-down; both are line-ball finals, which is why we're spreading across lines, the winner and a couple of longer plays rather than backing short favourites.
Win it at the source against an under-strength Pies defence, at a line we're happy to give.
On their own deck, the Demons are a fair price against the form side.
Carlton midfielder recently used across half-back who can push forward and hit the scoreboard in a side that racks up possessions.
The value-board play we can genuinely argue is the styles clash on Saturday: Melbourne fast out of the middle early, Carlton's class running it back their way after the main break.
Demons quick out of the gates at the 'G, Carlton the form side to run over the top in the second half — a real risk play, but the shape fits.
Carlton half-back with speed and run who occasionally pushes forward in a high-possession side that should get its share of the ball.
We're not forcing a multi this week — both games are close enough that we'd rather have these as standalone plays than tie them together.
- → Two sudden-death finals at the MCG: Bulldogs v Collingwood Friday, Melbourne v Carlton Saturday.
- → We lean the Bulldogs for their clearance edge over an under-strength Pies defence, but both games are line-ball — hence the spread of markets.
- → Naughton (ankle) and English (knee) are both under a cloud for the Dogs; check the confirmed teams before you back in.
18+. Prices move and teams change late — always confirm the final line-ups. Bet within your means.
Editorial at The Daily Punt, covering Australian racing and sport with an eye for where the value sits.
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